Forecast log

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric move",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-08T08:53:00Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-08T08:50:00Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload fields and enums fit, evidence_uuids are non-empty, and validation_team is a dict. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A/B evidence from Reuters on 2026-06-08 and 2026-06-05, Associated Press on 2026-06-07, plus IEA and Bloomberg anchors within the Tier-1 aging window. Check 3 passes because the proposal uses Layer A scenario-output framing, avoids hard-reject phrases and CCI-as-probability language, and does not combine Layer A/B/C figures arithmetically.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: the proposal schema is valid for trigger iran_hormuz with evidence_added and non-empty evidence_uuids. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A/B rows from Reuters on 2026-06-08 and 2026-06-05, Associated Press on 2026-06-07, plus IEA and Bloomberg anchors within the Tier-1 aging window; the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary are present in the cited quotes. Check 3 passes because the summary uses Layer A scenario-output framing and avoids prohibited probability language or section 7.7 arithmetic combination; no magnitude move is proposed under Check 4.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix",
    "vix_inversion",
    "brent_spot",
    "hy_oas",
    "treasury_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:15:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "3dc6c05c-8373-47cf-ba86-9a6157db4131",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 5
}

{
  "current_value": 21.51
}

{
  "current_value": 21.51
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hyperscaler_fcf_capex"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hyperscaler_fcf_capex",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "reuters",
  "source_run_uuid": "d60290d7-5aac-43d3-8f65-c0fedecada44",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}

{
  "current_value": 0.06398
}

{
  "current_value": 0.06398
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_curve"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_curve",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:59:52Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "7612710e-4379-45fb-98d9-96deabc3e9d1",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}

{
  "current_value": 2.24
}

{
  "current_value": 2.24
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "jgb_10y",
    "tsy_auction_tail"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "jgb_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T21:54:30Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "2c2e75f4-1952-4625-a434-17c75ad7aed1",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 2.67
}

{
  "current_value": 2.67
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "treasury_10y",
    "bdc_nav_discount"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "treasury_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T00:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "ddd1a30f-696a-40d8-a22c-2758df12a9b2",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 4.55
}

{
  "current_value": 4.55
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hy_oas"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hy_oas",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-04T00:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "federalreserve",
  "source_run_uuid": "e42e1bd4-2cd5-417b-8728-f9a33b248b0b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}

{
  "current_value": 2.74
}

{
  "current_value": 2.74
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix_inversion",
    "brent_spot"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix_inversion",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:15:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "5704ac4a-7638-41ff-aec5-6b527df1d5e2",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 2.41
}

{
  "current_value": 2.41
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "move_index",
    "vix"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "move_index",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:51:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "7d121941-a101-45c8-a118-5477a0d6f5d2",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 75.1985
}

{
  "current_value": 75.1985
}

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "redispatch_run_uuid": "bbfd3b75-8f1c-4f38-829f-51cfce886636",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T21:41:07.847811+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T21:41:07.847811+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. Schema fits ProposalPayload with evidence_added and empty new_value; stablecoin is Tier 3 so the CoinGecko, DefiLlama, Circle, Federal Reserve Board, and CoinDesk rows are fresh and sufficient, with numeric/date claims traceable to quoted evidence or operator threshold context. Paper discipline is adequate: the summary uses Layer A scenario-output framing, references hashed section 13 only as a non-attributed operator/framework boundary, and makes no A/B/C arithmetic or prohibited probability claim.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. Schema is valid for evidence_added on trigger stablecoin, cited rows are fresh for a Tier-3 quiet trigger, CoinGecko/DefiLlama/Circle/Federal Reserve/CoinDesk claims match the supplied quotes, and section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing is present without prohibited probability language or unsupported section 13 attribution.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.05,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T21:29:57.482009+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T21:29:57.482009+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "manual-tick-11d86845-2f58-4146-9780-08103fbc73c8",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema and enums fit, evidence_uuids map to three rows from CRED iQ, Trepp, and Federal Reserve Board, and the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary are supported by the supplied quotes. Paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output and not a probability claim, section 13 and section 13.6 references use hashed anchors, and no state move from 0.65 is proposed.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "manual-tick-11d86845-2f58-4146-9780-08103fbc73c8",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema and enums fit, validation_team is a dict, and evidence_uuids map to the provided rows. Check 2 source sufficiency is met by CRED iQ and Trepp Grade B plus Federal Reserve Grade A, with numeric/date claims matching quotes and fresh published_at dates. Check 3 discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, no probability language or prohibited phrase appears, and section 13/13.6 CRE threshold references are used without a state shift.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.65
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T21:29:57.650712+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T21:29:57.650712+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "manual-tick-11d86845-2f58-4146-9780-08103fbc73c8",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema is valid for amplifier evidence_added, and State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and FactSet rows are fresh, material, and quote-support the numeric/date claims. Section 7.4 Layer A is framed as scenario output, no probability claim is made, section 13/13.6 references are used only to explain no state decrease, and no magnitude move is proposed.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "manual-tick-11d86845-2f58-4146-9780-08103fbc73c8",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added for amplifier concentration, cited SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and FactSet rows are fresh for a slow-cadence amplifier and quote-support the numeric/date claims. Paper discipline is acceptable because Layer A is framed as scenario output, section 13/13.6 language is used only to explain no state shift, and no prohibited probability phrasing or layer arithmetic appears.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.99
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "routine evidence_added",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T21:04:15.437144+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T20:57:19.398727+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "da567331d8388472",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "8c4f1dc5d43dfd67",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.99,
  "display_value": "CAPE 41.2",
  "raw_metric_value": null
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "redispatch_run_uuid": "a3bf2284-f735-4afc-b26b-142cf3df94af",
  "source_pending_audit": "C:\\Users\\alexe\\whenwecrash\\agent_swarm\\operator_review\\proposal_pending_audit\\ai_cyber_f2e11e1f-50ba-4fb9-bf50-e93858bdea73.json",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:12.580359+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:11.457664+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "daba1329581f01b9",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. Schema fits ProposalPayload, cited Microsoft Threat Intelligence, Microsoft AI Red Team, OpenAI, and CrowdStrike rows are fresh Grade B primary publisher material, and the proposal correctly keeps Layer A as scenario output under section 7.4 with no prior or status move.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "daba1329581f01b9",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. The evidence_added payload is schema-fit, cites fresh Grade B rows from Microsoft Threat Intelligence, Microsoft AI Red Team, OpenAI, and CrowdStrike, preserves section 7.4 scenario-output framing, and explicitly holds ai_cyber prior/status unchanged because section 13 falsification remains unmet.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.14,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "redispatch_run_uuid": "a3bf2284-f735-4afc-b26b-142cf3df94af",
  "source_pending_audit": "C:\\Users\\alexe\\whenwecrash\\agent_swarm\\operator_review\\proposal_pending_audit\\basis_trade_f2e11e1f-50ba-4fb9-bf50-e93858bdea73.json",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:12.227874+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:11.457664+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ebbe82442f4307b6",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. ProposalPayload schema and enums fit, cited Grade A official rows from NY Fed, Federal Reserve Board, Dallas Fed, and Treasury are fresh and materially update SOFR-IORB, repo operations, H.4.1, structural repo borrowing, and Treasury monitoring inputs. Reasoning stays within section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing, makes no state move, and the evidence supports holding basis_trade at quiet with evidence_added.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ebbe82442f4307b6",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. The cited Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Board, Dallas Fed, and Treasury rows are fresh Grade A official-source evidence, numeric/date claims in the reasoning_summary match raw_payload.quote fields, and the section 7.4 Layer A framing is stated without arithmetic layer mixing.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "redispatch_run_uuid": "a3bf2284-f735-4afc-b26b-142cf3df94af",
  "source_pending_audit": "C:\\Users\\alexe\\whenwecrash\\agent_swarm\\operator_review\\proposal_pending_audit\\yen_carry_7a78bb78-8cf2-4064-80be-bb67d79796f7.json",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:11.857057+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:11.457664+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "6a6ee05c4e594a51",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: evidence_added is schema-valid with empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, and dict validation_team. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Reuters and Bank of Japan rows dated 2026-06-02 through 2026-06-05, including BOJ primary FX data and Reuters numeric evidence on bearish yen positioning and reserves. Check 3 passes because section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 7.7 independence is preserved, and section 13 and section 13.6 references are used as falsification/bull-case discipline without arithmetic layer mixing.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "6a6ee05c4e594a51",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All 5 checks pass in proposal mode. Check 1 schema fits ProposalPayload, Check 2 has fresh Grade A Reuters and Bank of Japan rows from 2026-06-02 through 2026-06-05 with material numeric inputs, and Check 3 section anchors 7.4, 7.7, 13, and 13.6 exist in the hash file with no prohibited probability language or layer arithmetic. Magnitude and coherence pass because the proposal adds evidence while holding current_prior 0.24 and status watching unchanged.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.24,
  "status": "watching"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "run_uuid": "7a78bb78-8cf2-4064-80be-bb67d79796f7",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "validator_panel": {
    "A": "accept",
    "B": "accept"
  },
  "validators": [
    {
      "blocking_issues": [],
      "checks": {
        "check1": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "ProposalPayload schema fits: entity_type trigger, change_type evidence_added, empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, and validation_team is a dict."
        },
        "check2": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Evidence rows match posted UUIDs and include fresh Grade A/B material from Reuters, SEC EDGAR, and Alternative Credit Investor; all numeric and date claims in reasoning_summary are supported by raw quotes or framework state."
        },
        "check3": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Paper discipline is satisfied: section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing is used, section 13.6 anchor exists, no prohibited phrases or arithmetic layer combination appear."
        },
        "check4": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Magnitude is plausible because evidence_added makes no prior or status move; the evidence supports adding material operating, redemption, filing, and ratings rows."
        },
        "check5": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Framework coherence holds: current prior is stated as already 0.25 and status active, so no upward state move is available while fresh evidence continues to support active monitoring."
        }
      },
      "entity_id": "private_credit",
      "reasoning": "Accept. The private_credit proposal cites five evidence UUIDs that are present in evidence_rows_for_validation and match the posted UUIDs. Reuters, SEC EDGAR, and Alternative Credit Investor quotes support the issuance slowdown, redemption caps, tender terms, Moody\u0027s negative outlook action, BXSL non-accrual figures, and Fitch counterfactor. The cited section 7.4 and section 13.6 anchors exist in paper_section_hashes.json, and the evidence_added action is coherent for an already active trigger at 0.25.",
      "validator": "A",
      "verdict": "accept"
    },
    {
      "blocking_issues": [],
      "checks": {
        "check1": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "ProposalPayload schema fits: trigger/private_credit, change_type evidence_added, empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, validation_team is an object."
        },
        "check2": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "All five cited UUIDs are present in evidence_rows_for_validation and match posted UUIDs; newest Reuters row is 2026-06-05, within the 5-day active Tier-1 window, with A/B rows from Reuters, SEC EDGAR, and Alternative Credit Investor."
        },
        "check3": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Reasoning uses Layer A scenario-output framing under section 7.4, does not invoke Layer B or Layer C figures, cites section 13.6 only as unmet bull-case conditions, and contains no hard-reject phrase."
        },
        "check4": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No prior or status move is proposed; evidence_added is plausible because the proposal says private_credit is already at current_prior 0.25 and status active while fresh evidence is confirmatory and mixed by Fitch\u0027s counterfactor."
        },
        "check5": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No contradiction with the stated active private_credit state is visible; the proposal adds evidence without lowering or raising framework state."
        }
      },
      "entity_id": "private_credit",
      "reasoning": "Accept. The Reuters, SEC EDGAR, and Alternative Credit Investor rows support the numeric claims in the reasoning_summary, including issuance falling to $44.76 billion, BCRED requests at 10%, Cliffwater requests at 17%, BXSL non-accruals at 4.7 per cent, and Fitch\u0027s below-2.0x leverage counterfactor. The cited paper anchors exist in paper_section_hashes.json and the proposal keeps section 7.4 scenario-output framing without arithmetic layer combination.",
      "validator": "B",
      "verdict": "accept"
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.25,
  "status": "active"
}

{}

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "proposal_acceptance",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T19:59:30.434494+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T19:59:30.434494+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ee5c54b0ea06836a",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "5e81ca96f7844faf",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "watching",
  "threshold_definition": "10y Treasury yield shock, term-premium widening, or failed long-end auction stress."
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric move",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T19:49:37Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T19:49:37Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "reasoning": "All five checks pass in proposal mode. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A Taiwan Ministry of National Defense rows dated 2026-06-03 through 2026-06-05 and a Grade B Bloomberg row dated 2026-05-08, with quoted numeric claims matching the evidence. Check 3 is satisfied because section 7.4 scenario-output framing, section 7.7 independence, and section 13 threshold language are present without prohibited probability wording; evidence_added makes Check 4 magnitude neutral.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. Schema fits ProposalPayload for trigger evidence_added with empty new_value and validation_team as a dict; Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Grade A rows dated Jun. 3-5, 2026 and Bloomberg News Grade B dated May 8, 2026 support the quoted numeric/date claims and are fresh for quiet Tier-1 evidence accumulation. Paper anchors section 7.4, section 7.7, and section 13 exist in the hash file, the summary frames Layer A as scenario output and does not combine layers arithmetically; no state magnitude move is proposed.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.09,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric move",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T19:30:23Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T19:30:23Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value and non-empty evidence_uuids. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A/B rows from PIMCO, Bloomberg, and S\u0026P Global Ratings, with all numeric claims in reasoning_summary present in the cited quotes. Check 3 paper anchors section 7.4 and section 13 are hashed, and the proposal keeps Layer A as scenario-output framing without arithmetic layer mixing.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. The cited PIMCO, S\u0026P Global Ratings, and Bloomberg rows are fresh for ai_capex status rising and support the numeric claims in the reasoning_summary; section 7.4 scenario-output framing and section 13 falsification language are present, with no unsupported status transition or prior move.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.3,
  "status": "rising"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric move",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T19:30:23Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T19:30:23Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. The evidence_added ProposalPayload is schema-fit with new_value {}, cited AP/Reuters/EIA/IEA/CME rows are fresh Grade A/B material for active Tier-1 iran_hormuz, and the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary match the quoted rows. Paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 13 and section 13.6 anchors exist in the hash file, no prohibited phrases or layer arithmetic appear, and no magnitude move is proposed.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. Schema fits ProposalPayload for trigger evidence_added with empty new_value, and Tier-1 active freshness is satisfied by Grade A Associated Press on 2026-06-03 and Reuters on 2026-06-01, with EIA and IEA primary rows inside the section 10 aging window. Numeric claims in reasoning_summary match cited quotes, section 7.4 Layer A is framed as scenario output rather than a probability claim, section 13 and section 13.6 anchors exist, and no prior/status magnitude move is proposed.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-04T09:34:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "b235ea9a-b2c1-441c-9421-763fb0a3c9f8",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}

{
  "current_value": 16.45
}

{
  "current_value": 16.45
}

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "deterministic_threshold",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "deterministic_threshold",
  "evidence_only_finalizer": true,
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "source_run_uuid": "01d08934-8520-4795-ab87-fceb5a7009ca",
  "specialist_model": "evidence_finalizer",
  "step": 0,
  "voters": []
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}

{}

[]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "accept_reject",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-03T05:51:16.917625+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-03T05:48:54.847718+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "f1d5be1e125f1656",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All proposal-mode checks pass. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board rows, with Grade C sofrrate.com and Yahoo Finance used only as supplemental anchors. Check 3 paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 and section 13 hashes exist in paper_section_hashes.json, the Layer A claim is framed as scenario output, and no prohibited phrases or arithmetic layer combination appear.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "6d934fa9f7c802ae",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Passes Check 1 schema for proposal mode and Check 2 evidence sufficiency: Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board rows are Grade A, fresh for a quiet trigger, and provide new numeric inputs. Check 3 paper anchors are valid for section 7.4 and section 13 hashes, with no prohibited probability phrasing or arithmetic layer combination. No prior/status move is proposed, so Checks 4 and 5 show no unsupported magnitude or framework contradiction.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0.0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T22:31:23Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T22:31:23Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "0eee65bbcb2ca93e",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense and Reuters rows are fresh Grade A/B evidence, quotes support the cited Jun 1-Jun 2 numeric claims, section 7.4 and section 7.7 anchors exist, and evidence_added makes no unsupported magnitude move.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "9645829c35f5ab56",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema is valid for trigger/taiwan with change_type evidence_added, fresh Taiwan MND Grade A and Reuters Grade B rows support the numeric and date claims, and section 7.4, section 7.7, and section 13 anchors exist in the hash set. No prohibited phrases or arithmetic layer combination appear, and the payload records evidence accumulation without a prior or status move.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.09,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]