Tier 1 · 3× Rising

AI capex shock

AI capex shock is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.30, status rising. Oracle Investor Relations (2026-06-10) reports FY2026 free cash flow at negative $23.7 billion and $43 billion in debt financing, extending capex-to-cash-flow compression. Section 7.4 frames the evidence as scenario-output; no threshold has been crossed. The position de-loads if a top-7 hyperscaler signals a qualifying capex reduction or funding strain reverses.

Current probability
30%/ 100
12-MONTH FORWARD HORIZON
Threshold
>25% capex cut from any top-7 hyperscaler
Tier weight
P range
0–50%
Last update
13:36 UTC
Current prob
30%
current
Status
Rising
·
Tier
Tier 1
weight 3×
P min
0%
floor
P max
50%
ceiling
Updated
13:36 UTC
live
Threshold definition

>25% capex cut from any top-7 hyperscaler

AI capex shock is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.30, status rising. Oracle Investor Relations (2026-06-10) reports FY2026 free cash flow at negative $23.7 billion and $43 billion in debt financing, extending capex-to-cash-flow compression. Section 7.4 frames the evidence as scenario-output; no threshold has been crossed. The position de-loads if a top-7 hyperscaler signals a qualifying capex reduction or funding strain reverses.

Recent evidence