Crash Configuration · 12 May 2026

+3 in 90d · 1 active · 2 watching · 5 amplifiers elevated · LLM consensus 3 / 3
CRASH CONFIGURATION INDEX click to flip ↺
60 DANGER → 0 20 40 70 80 90 100 1999 64 2008 87 2020 91 CRASH CONFIGURATION today
64/ 100⚠ Elevated
Matches the December 1999 peak — the only previous time CAPE crossed 40 in 145 years.

Crash Configuration Index

64/ 100⚠ Elevated
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Composition · tier contribution

Tier 1 · 3×70%
Tier 2 · 2×23%
Tier 3 · 1×7%

Motion

Δ 90 days+3rising
Δ year+16accelerating

State

Active1 of 8Oil & Iran
Watching2 of 8Yen, PrivC
Quiet5 of 8contained

Historical anchors

199964= today
200172+8 to recess.
200887GFC peak
202091COVID peak

Scenario layers · 24-mo horizon

Layer A76.7%P(≥1 trigger)
Layer B49.9%P(draw ≥25%)

Validation

Consensus3 / 3 LLMwithin tol.
Updated21:23 UTClive
About this index

Crash Configuration Index

A composite stress index, scored 0–100. It measures how loaded the current market configuration is — not the probability of a crash and not a forecast.

Eight discrete triggers are weighted by blast radius (Tier 1 systemic at 3×, Tier 2 contagion at 2×, Tier 3 contained at 1×), then modulated by five slow-moving amplifiers (valuation, concentration, CRE wall, IG supply, stablecoin backstop).

Historical anchors place today against past episodes: 1999 = 64 (the only previous CAPE ≥ 40 regime), 2008 = 87, 2020 = 91. Read the dial as “where the configuration sits today,” never as “X% chance of a crash.”

Every change is cross-validated by three independent LLM families (Claude, Gemini, GPT). The methodology is published; the forecast log is auditable.

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five amplifiers · slow-moving state · all elevated
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3 AI families · 15 sources · full log →