A previously verified disruption needs fresh review. Expired evidence does not establish recovery. · A previously verified disruption needs fresh review. Expired evidence does not establish recovery.
A previously verified disruption needs fresh review. Expired evidence does not establish recovery.
A previously verified disruption needs fresh review. Expired evidence does not establish recovery.
No published history loaded.
Select a cell to filter the measurements below. Hatched cells lack usable signals for this horizon. * Limited coverage. Bands describe measured stress, not crisis probability.
Each band shows the strongest current measurement in that channel. It does not imply complete regional coverage or a global crisis verdict.
Arrows describe possible propagation. They do not measure exposures or establish causality.
A catalyst matters when it changes funding, loss absorption or the supply of credit.
Risk changes, new observations, source corrections and coverage changes remain distinct.
Global market crash: danger of a severe, broad equity drawdown. The evaluation definition uses a 20% historical-peak decline in the MSCI ACWI net-return USD index, with substantial losses across US, developed ex-US and emerging markets. The operational ACWI ETF and regional ETF signals are proxies; they cannot by themselves verify that event.
Systemic financial crisis: material impairment across at least two funding, credit, payments or intermediation mechanisms and two major jurisdictions, with documented transmission. Regional distress, a selloff or precautionary central-bank action alone is insufficient.
Immediate danger covers days 1–30. A transition warning covers days 31–89 using the stronger adjacent-horizon warning, without inventing an intermediate probability. Buildup covers days 90–365. An event underway is identified separately. Historical event labels still require independent review.
Low → Watch → Elevated → High → Critical. These are experimental ordered judgments, not probabilities. Forecast skill has not been established.
Risk level and confidence answer different questions. The level is our judgment from usable evidence; confidence reflects missing regions, indirect measures and publication delays. Low means the measured conditions currently show little immediate stress, not that a crisis is impossible. At least funding, credit and bank evidence is required for a quiet systemic reading; market risk also requires global price and regional breadth evidence. A single calm quote cannot produce Low.
High valuations, leverage and borrower strain can raise a buildup warning before a selloff. Verified shocks can raise warnings when linked to financial exposures. Related indicators count together rather than as independent votes. Conflicting sources reduce confidence.
Direction uses observed changes. Recovery requires new observations in the decisive inputs, with adequate coverage. Missing data cannot produce reassuring zeroes.
Within a freshness limit means latest usable reporting, not real-time measurement. Geography and mechanism gaps remain visible. Stored publications preserve revisions and first-seen dates. Historical downloads cannot masquerade as forecasts made in the past.