Valuation current_state is 0.99, at the ceiling of the operator policy band. Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data) published_at 2026-06-05 reports "Current Shiller PE Ratio: 41.57". FactSet Research Systems Inc. published_at 2026-06-05 reports "84% (72 out of 86)" of oil-citing S&P 500 companies with 2026 EPS guidance maintained or increased it. The position de-loads when valuation and earnings evidence retreat together.
Valuation current_state is 0.99, at the ceiling of the operator policy band. Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data) published_at 2026-06-05 reports "Current Shiller PE Ratio: 41.57". FactSet Research Systems Inc. published_at 2026-06-05 reports "84% (72 out of 86)" of oil-citing S&P 500 companies with 2026 EPS guidance maintained or increased it. The position de-loads when valuation and earnings evidence retreat together.
Multpl.com, a public mirror of Robert Shiller's CAPE data, shows the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio at 41.43 after the June 12 close. The same page shows a mean of 17.39 and a prior maximum of 44.19 in Dec 1999.
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 41.43 +0.23 (0.55%). 4:00 PM EDT, Fri Jun 12. Mean: 17.39. Median: 16.10. Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920). Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999).
The multpl.com monthly table shows the latest intra-month reading at 41.43 on Jun 12, 2026 and monthly readings of 41.32 on Jun 1, 2026 and 41.10 on May 1, 2026. The table confirms that the CAPE reading re-crossed the regime anchor after the March-April dip.
Jun 12, 2026 41.43 | Jun 1, 2026 41.32 | May 1, 2026 41.10 | Apr 1, 2026 38.93 | Mar 1, 2026 37.66 | Feb 1, 2026 39.53 | Jan 1, 2026 40.03
Multpl.com, a Robert Shiller data mirror, reports the current Shiller CAPE at 40.87 as of 4:00 PM EDT on Jun 10, 2026. The reading is below the Jun 9 evidence but remains above the regime-defining 40 anchor and below the Dec 1999 maximum listed on the page.
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 40.87 -0.67 (-1.62%). 4:00 PM EDT, Wed Jun 10. Mean: 17.38 | Median: 16.09 | Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920) | Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999).
FRED, sourcing S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, reports the S&P 500 close at 7,266.99 for Jun 10, 2026. The daily price input is lower than the Jun 9 close and keeps the live valuation read current.
2026-06-10: 7,266.99 | Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted | Daily, Close. Updated: Jun 10, 2026 7:02 PM CDT. 2026-06-09: 7,386.65; 2026-06-08: 7,405.73; 2026-06-05: 7,383.74; 2026-06-04: 7,584.31.
FRED, sourcing S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, reports the S&P 500 close at 7,386.65 for Jun 9, 2026. The recent price input is lower than the Jun 4 close but remains a current daily valuation input.
2026-06-09: 7,386.65 | Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted | Daily, Close. Updated: Jun 9, 2026 7:02 PM CDT. 2026-06-08: 7,405.73; 2026-06-05: 7,383.74; 2026-06-04: 7,584.31; 2026-06-03: 7,553.68.
Multpl.com, a Robert Shiller data mirror, reports the current Shiller CAPE at 41.54 as of 4:00 PM EDT on Jun 9, 2026. The reading is slightly lower than the Jun 5 evidence but remains above the regime-defining 40 anchor and below the Dec 1999 maximum listed on the page.
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 41.54 -0.13 (-0.30%). 4:00 PM EDT, Tue Jun 9. Mean: 17.38 | Median: 16.09 | Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920) | Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999).
YCharts reports S&P 500 Shiller CAPE at 41.02 for Jun 2026, up from 40.16 last month and 36.11 one year ago. This independently corroborates the CAPE regime reading from Shiller-linked data.
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio is at a current level of 41.02, up from 40.16 last month and up from 36.11 one year ago. This is a change of 2.15% from last month and 13.60% from one year ago. Last Value 41.02. Latest Period Jun 2026. Last Updated Jun 8 2026, 19:00 EDT.
Multpl.com, a Robert Shiller data mirror, reports the current Shiller CAPE at 41.57 as of 4:00 PM EDT on Jun 5, 2026. The reading is lower than the prior Jun 4 evidence but remains above the regime-defining 40 anchor and below the Dec 1999 maximum listed on the page.
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 41.57 -1.13 (-2.64%). 4:00 PM EDT, Fri Jun 5. Mean: 17.38 | Median: 16.09 | Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920) | Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999).
FactSet reports that oil was cited on 149 S&P 500 Q1 earnings calls from Mar 15 through Jun 5, 2026, but most oil-citing companies that provided 2026 EPS guidance maintained or increased it. This is relevant to the bull-case review because it does not show broad earnings-guidance damage large enough to mechanically de-load the valuation amplifier.
Overall, the term "oil" was cited on 149 earnings calls conducted by S&P 500 companies during this period. Therefore, 84% (72 out of 86) of the S&P 500 companies that cited "oil" on their Q1 earnings calls and provided annual EPS guidance either increased or maintained prior EPS guidance for 2026.
FactSet's Jun 5 Earnings Insight keeps forward valuation elevated while earnings estimates continue to grow. The report also says most oil-citing S&P 500 companies with annual EPS guidance maintained or increased prior 2026 guidance, so the latest earnings context does not support mechanical de-loading of the valuation amplifier.
EARNINGS INSIGHT June 5, 2026. Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.1. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (19.0). Therefore, 84% (72 out of 86) of the S&P 500 companies that cited "oil" on their Q1 earnings calls and provided annual EPS guidance either increased or maintained prior EPS guidance for 2026.