Yen carry unwind

TradingEconomics shows USD/JPY at 159.792 on September 1, 2026, up 0.03 percent on the day, up 1.66 percent on the month, and up 7.55 percent year over year, with the pair holding near one-month lows as the dollar strengthens on Fed rate-path expectations.

Current Rate: 159.792... Daily Change: +0.0420 (+0.03%)... Monthly Change: +1.66%... Yearly Change: +7.55%... the Japanese yen traded around 160 per dollar on Monday, hovering near one-month lows

BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the Bank will discuss whether to raise its policy rate at every meeting including September, citing upside price risks as underlying inflation approaches the 2 percent target.

at every monetary policy meeting, including the next one... We need to be even more mindful of upside risks to prices, given that the underlying inflation rate is approaching (the BOJ's inflation target of) 2 pct... We aren't saying we'll not take a single step until complete information becomes available

TradingEconomics showed USD/JPY at 159.972 on August 28, 2026, up 0.36 percent on the day but down 2.10 percent on the month and up 8.86 percent year over year, indicating the pair has partially rebuilt toward pre-intervention levels since the early-August coordinated intervention.

Current Rate: 159.972... Daily Change: +0.5785 (+0.36%)... Monthly Change: -2.10%... Yearly Change: +8.86%

Japan Ministry of Finance monthly release stating total foreign exchange intervention operations of JPY 15,399.3 billion for the period July 30, 2026 through August 26, 2026, corroborating the scale of the yen-support intervention.

Total amount of foreign exchange intervention operations for the period from July 30, 2026 through August 26, 2026: JPY 15,399.3 billion

Investinglive.com direct desk report of BOJ Deputy Governor Himino's speech to business leaders in Saitama, quoting his call for continued rate hikes and heightened attention to upside inflation risk ahead of the September policy meeting.

the BOJ should keep raising rates as underlying inflation nears 2%... the board must be mindful of upside price risks more than ever before... a deviation above target would hurt the economy

A Yomiuri Shimbun survey of 14 economists found eight expect the BOJ to raise its policy rate from 1.0 percent to 1.25 percent at the September meeting, while Doton Research put the market-implied September hike probability at 81 percent based on trading trends.

the September rate-hike probability calculated by Doton Research based on market participants' trading trends was 81%... eight said the BOJ would raise its short-term policy rate target from the current 1.0% to 1.25% at its September meeting

Reuters reported an early BOJ rate hike has come into sight, with a strong chance of action at the September 17-18 meeting and potential for an accelerated pace of increases thereafter; USD/JPY traded around 159.43 at the time.

An early rate hike has come into sight...The BoJ could also accelerate the pace of rate increases

Leveraged funds cut net short yen positions in futures and options by roughly half, to about 63,600 contracts as of August 4, down from nearly 138,000 net short contracts in late June (the largest bearish yen position since 2007), following the coordinated US-Japan intervention.

leveraged investors cut their net short yen position in futures and options markets by around half, to about 63,600 contracts as of 4 August... held almost 138,000 net short contracts -- their largest bearish position against the yen since 2007

Primary MOF/BOJ same-day intervention data unreachable directly; sourced via Bloomberg wire citing official Finance Minister confirmation and BOJ account data. Bloomberg analysis of BOJ accounts estimated Japan spent about 5.33 trillion yen ($34 billion) intervening on July 31, building on an estimated 8.45 trillion yen operation the prior day that would set a new single-day and monthly intervention record; USD/JPY fell from near 164 (weakest since 1986) to around 155.23-156.92, and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed the intervention.

Japan likely used around $34 billion intervening in the currency market to support the yen on Friday...Before Japanese authorities entered the market last week, the yen was trading close to 164 against the greenback...The yen was trading around 156.92 to the dollar Monday evening in Tokyo after strengthening to around 155.23 in the morning...Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed earlier in the day that Japan stepped into the market on Friday.

The BOJ Policy Board held the policy rate at around 1.0 percent by an 8-1 majority vote on July 31, 2026, with Takata Hajime the lone dissenter proposing a hike to 1.25 percent; the hawkish dissent bloc narrowed from three members (Takata, Tamura, Nakagawa) in April to one in July.

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by an 8-1 majority vote... The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent... Voting against the action: TAKATA Hajime... He proposed that the Bank set the guideline for money market operations as follows: the Bank would encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.25 percent. The proposal was defeated by a majority vote.