Yen carry is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.27, status watching; threshold is USD/JPY below 140 in under 5 sessions. Polymarket (2026-06-13) prices a June BOJ 25 bps increase at 99%, scheduled to resolve on or around June 16, 2026. Section 7.4 frames the prior as scenario output; layers remain independent per section 7.7. The framework de-loads when spot stabilizes and carry-position stress recedes, per sections 13 and 13.6.
Yen carry is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.27, status watching; threshold is USD/JPY below 140 in under 5 sessions. Polymarket (2026-06-13) prices a June BOJ 25 bps increase at 99%, scheduled to resolve on or around June 16, 2026. Section 7.4 frames the prior as scenario output; layers remain independent per section 7.7. The framework de-loads when spot stabilizes and carry-position stress recedes, per sections 13 and 13.6.
Polymarket shows the active June BOJ decision market with 25 bps increase priced as the leading outcome and no change priced low, with the market scheduled to resolve around the June decision date. This is Grade C only, but it updates the current-horizon market-implied path for the meeting.
The current frontrunner for "Bank of Japan Decision in June?" is "25 bps increase" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. As of today, "Bank of Japan Decision in June?" has generated $541.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 19, 2026; the market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 16, 2026.
Polymarket shows the active June BOJ decision market with 25 bps increase priced as the leading outcome and no change priced low, with the market scheduled to resolve around the June decision date. This is Grade C only, but it updates the current-horizon market-implied path for the meeting.
The current frontrunner for "Bank of Japan Decision in June?" is "25 bps increase" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. As of today, "Bank of Japan Decision in June?" has generated $541.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 19, 2026; the market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 16, 2026.
BOJ release schedule says it was last updated June 12, 2026 and lists the June 16 Statement on Monetary Policy plus June 24 Summary of Opinions for the June 15-16 meeting. This confirms the live BOJ decision event is still ahead of the run date and is operationally imminent.
Schedule of the Bank's releases including the dates of the upcoming Monetary Policy Meetings. In principle, schedules are updated every Friday (last update: June 12, 2026). June 16 undecided Statement on Monetary Policy; June 24 8:50 Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting (Held on June 15, 16).
WSJ reported that the BOJ was widely expected to raise rates at the next meeting, citing surging energy prices and yen weakness. The article itself was restricted, so the accessible search-result extract is used as the material quote.
Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates to 1% next week, a 31-year high, amid surging energy prices and yen weakness.
BOJ release schedule says it was last updated June 12, 2026 and lists the June 16 Statement on Monetary Policy plus June 24 Summary of Opinions for the June 15-16 meeting. This confirms the live BOJ decision event is still ahead of the run date and is operationally imminent.
Schedule of the Bank's releases including the dates of the upcoming Monetary Policy Meetings. In principle, schedules are updated every Friday (last update: June 12, 2026). June 16 undecided Statement on Monetary Policy; June 24 8:50 Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting (Held on June 15, 16).
WSJ reported that the BOJ was widely expected to raise rates at the next meeting, citing surging energy prices and yen weakness. The article itself was restricted, so the accessible search-result extract is used as the material quote.
Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates to 1% next week, a 31-year high, amid surging energy prices and yen weakness.
Bank of Japan official daily foreign exchange data for June 11 showed USD/JPY at 160.50-51 at 17:00 JST after 160.52-54 at 9:00 JST, with a 160.43 to 160.54 range. The spot input keeps the yen pressure channel live but far from the unwind threshold.
At 9:00 JST 160.52-54. At 17:00 JST 160.50-51. Range 160.43 - 160.54. June 11, 2026.
The Business Times carried a Bloomberg report on June 11 saying investors still expected BOJ tightening despite uncertainty over Governor Ueda's absence. The report cited OIS repricing, USD/JPY near 160.5, and a market strategist calling a 25-basis-point hike all but certain.
Published Thu, Jun 11, 2026. Overnight index swaps showed the chance of a hike briefly fell to as low as about 73 per cent on Thursday (Jun 11) morning before almost fully pricing it in again, according to Bloomberg data. The yen was little changed at 160.5 per US dollar as at 11.04 am in Tokyo. A 25-basis-point hike still looks all but certain.
Bank of Japan official daily foreign exchange data for June 10 showed USD/JPY at 160.38-40 at 17:00 JST, after 160.38-39 at 9:00 JST, with a 160.43 to 160.25 daily range.
At 9:00 JST 160.38-39. At 17:00 JST 160.38-40. Range 160.43 - 160.25. June 10, 2026.
Reuters reported that its June 2 to June 8 economist poll had 94% of economists, 66 of 70, expecting the BOJ policy rate to rise to 1.0% by the end of June, and said the poll showed borrowing costs reaching 1.25% by year-end.
TOKYO, June 10 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate this month and again in the fourth quarter, taking borrowing costs to 1.25% by year-end, as it grows more wary of inflation risks than downside hazards to the economy, a Reuters poll of economists showed. In the June 2 to June 8 poll, 94% of economists, 66 of 70, forecast the policy rate would rise to 1.0% by the end of June, up from 65% in a May survey.