Oil & Iran / Hormuz
Iran/Hormuz is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.45, status active. Reuters (2026-06-13) reports Brent settled at $87.33/barrel and Iran FM Araqchi confirmed the MOU had not yet been signed. The framework reads this as Layer A scenario output per section 7.4 for a chokepoint supply shock. De-load requires restored Hormuz traffic, durable oil normalization, and a ceasefire sustained over six months per section 13.
Brent > $95 sustained >= 30 trading days, OR kinetic Hormuz incident
Iran/Hormuz is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.45, status active. Reuters (2026-06-13) reports Brent settled at $87.33/barrel and Iran FM Araqchi confirmed the MOU had not yet been signed. The framework reads this as Layer A scenario output per section 7.4 for a chokepoint supply shock. De-load requires restored Hormuz traffic, durable oil normalization, and a ceasefire sustained over six months per section 13.
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Gulf News[bucket: reuters] 2026-09-04US-Iran war: What UAE residents need to know today (Sept. 4, 2026)
Gulf News (unregistered publisher, Grade C, non-load-bearing) reports the US position as of September 4 that it is prepared to sustain military operations to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions and stop Hormuz shipping disruptions.
The US is prepared to sustain military operations to achieve its objectives in Iran -- a curb on its nuclear ambitions and get Tehran to stop Hormuz shipping disruptions.
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Fortune[bucket: bloomberg] 2026-09-03Current price of oil as of September 3, 2026
Fortune confirms Brent crude reached $99.38 per barrel as of 8 a.m. Eastern Time on September 3, 2026, roughly $3.27 higher than the prior morning, driven by US-Iran military escalation and reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic.
By 8 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil had reached $99.38 per barrel, measured using the Brent benchmark.
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Al Jazeera[bucket: reuters] 2026-09-03How much oil is going through Hormuz? How data doesn't match US claims
Al Jazeera (unregistered publisher, Grade C, non-load-bearing) reports ship-tracking data showed just six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday, a 10-day average of 13 vessels daily, far below the US claim of 40 ships transiting on Tuesday.
just six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday
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TradingEconomics[bucket: bloomberg] 2026-09-02Brent Crude Tests June-2022 Highs
TradingEconomics (Grade D, citation-chain-only) confirms Brent hovered around $94 a barrel on September 2, close to six-week highs, following a rally over the prior two sessions after the US-Iran strikes.
Brent crude traded around $95 per barrel on Wednesday, hovering at its highest levels in nearly six weeks
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CNBC[bucket: bloomberg] 2026-09-02Two tankers hit Hormuz naval mines, Iran says amid regional strikes
CNBC (Grade B; HTTP 403 on direct fetch; published_at confirmed via URL path 2026/09/02; content corroborated via search engine) reports Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed two oil tankers caught fire after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a claim US Central Command directly disputed as disinformation.
No ships have hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This is yet another IRGC attempt to intimidate regional commercial shipping through disinformation.
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Fortune[bucket: bloomberg] 2026-09-01Current price of oil as of Sept. 1, 2026
Fortune confirms Brent crude trading at $94.11 per barrel as of 8 a.m. Eastern Time on September 1, continuing the escalation-driven price rise from the prior session.
As of 8 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil is trading at $94.11 per barrel, based on the Brent benchmark
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Navy Times[bucket: reuters] 2026-09-01US launches new barrage of strikes on Iran around Strait of Hormuz
Navy Times (unregistered, Grade C, non-load-bearing) reports CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces began striking IRGC targets in Iran at 12 p.m. ET on Sept 1, following attempted IRGC attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on American service members in the region.
Today at 12 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran. The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region.
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ABC News[bucket: reuters] 2026-09-01Iran live updates: After launching strikes, US warns of escalation if Iran responds
ABC News (unregistered, Grade C, non-load-bearing) reports CENTCOM targeted air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites in Iran on Sept 1, with Trump warning of further escalation if Iran retaliates.
Air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites
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NBC News[bucket: reuters] 2026-09-01Tehran targets U.S. allies in Gulf after U.S. launched 'large and powerful' strikes on Iran
NBC News (unregistered publisher, Grade C, non-load-bearing) reports Trump characterized the September 1 strikes as very heavy with more available any time, while Iran's armed forces vowed to impose a heavy cost on the United States.
It was a very heavy attack last night, and we're prepared to do another one any time we want.
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Fortune[bucket: bloomberg] 2026-08-31Gas topped $4 daily in August for the first time. New U.S. strikes on Iran are sending oil prices even higher again
Fortune reports U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday Aug 30, with Brent crude rising 3.2 percent to $90.91 per barrel on Monday Aug 31, following a six-month lull in direct U.S.-Iran strikes.
U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, rose 3.2%, to $90.91 per barrel on Monday.