Tier 2 · 2× Active

Private credit dislocation

Private credit dislocation is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.25, status active. Reuters (2026-06-05) reports issuance fell to $44.76 billion in the three months ended May 2026, while BCRED and Cliffwater capped withdrawals at 5% after 10% and 17% requests. The framework treats this as Layer A scenario output under section 7.4. De-load requires redemption normalization, stable BDC outlooks, and sustained improvement in stress metrics.

Current probability
25%/ 100
12-MONTH FORWARD HORIZON
Threshold
Major BDC suspends NAV
Tier weight
P range
0–35%
Last update
13:07 UTC
Current prob
25%
current
Status
Active
·
Tier
Tier 2
weight 2×
P min
0%
floor
P max
35%
ceiling
Updated
13:07 UTC
live
Threshold definition

Major BDC suspends NAV

Private credit dislocation is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.25, status active. Reuters (2026-06-05) reports issuance fell to $44.76 billion in the three months ended May 2026, while BCRED and Cliffwater capped withdrawals at 5% after 10% and 17% requests. The framework treats this as Layer A scenario output under section 7.4. De-load requires redemption normalization, stable BDC outlooks, and sustained improvement in stress metrics.

Recent evidence