Rates and fiscal stress

Federal Reserve H.15 for August 27, 2026 data showed effective fed funds at 3.63 percent, the 10-year Treasury at 4.67 percent, the 30-year Treasury at 5.19 percent, and the 5-year TIPS real yield at 2.07 percent, with the long end materially above the July 10 pack readings of 4.54 and 5.05 percent.

Effective Federal Funds Rate: 3.63%. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.67%. 30-Year Treasury Yield: 5.19%. 5-Year TIPS Real Yield: 2.07%.

Wolf Street (Grade C; source_id=bloomberg bucket used as closest registered category, flagged for operator review since wolfstreet.com is not a registered source) reported the August 13 30-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.216 percent, highest since 2001, and the August 12 10-year auction cleared at 4.683 percent, highest since 2007.

30-Year Treasury Bonds Auction Yield: 5.216%. Highest auction yield since August 2001. 10-Year Treasury Notes Auction Yield: 4.683%. Highest auction yield since August 2007.

CRFB (Grade C; source_id=fred bucket used as closest registered category, flagged for operator review since crfb.org is not a registered source) reported the August 13 30-year auction's bid-to-cover ratio at 2.39 and primary dealer absorption at 11.5 percent, signaling softer investor demand at the multi-decade-high yield.

5.216%, the highest since 2001. Bid-to-cover ratio of 2.39. Primary dealers absorbing 11.5% of the issuance.

BLS reported July 2026 CPI-U up 3.4 percent year-over-year at index level 333.918, a second consecutive monthly deceleration from 3.5 percent in June and 4.2 percent in May, remaining above the section 13 falsification floor of 3.0 percent.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 333.918 (1982-84=100).

FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.5-3.75 percent for a fifth consecutive meeting on a 9-3 vote, with three dissenting members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) preferring a 25 basis point hike; the Committee reiterated that inflation remains elevated relative to its 2 percent goal.

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.

Federal Reserve H.15 updated with July 9 data: effective fed funds at 3.62 percent, nominal 10-year Treasury at 4.54 percent, nominal 30-year Treasury at 5.05 percent, and 5-year TIPS real yield at 1.99 percent. Policy rate remains well below the staged entity's conjunctive 4.5 percent threshold; the Fed policy headroom falsification condition (funds below 4.0 percent) is met.

Release date: July 10, 2026 ... Federal funds (effective) ... 3.62 ... 10-year 4.54 ... 30-year 5.05 ... Inflation indexed ... 5-year 1.99

Investing.com showed MOVE index at 69.55 on July 10, 2026, with readings from June 26 through July 10 ranging 65.40 to 72.41 -- all well below the 110 normalization threshold and far below the 150 active threshold. Combined with the pack's June 9 reading of 77.03, multiple observations across a 31-day span show normalized Treasury volatility. Note: source is Investing.com (Grade C), not ICE or Bloomberg directly.

Jul 10, 2026 69.55 68.89 69.55 68.89 +0.96%

Minutes released July 8 showed a few participants discussed a case for raising the fed funds rate at the June meeting while all voted to hold; participants judged that risks to the inflation outlook were still tilted to the upside and that inflation would remain elevated near-term before declining as tariff and energy effects wane. Many officials assessed the appropriate end-2026 fed funds rate would be above the current 3.5-3.75 percent target range.

A few participants noted there was a case for raising the target range for the federal funds rate... participants judged that the risks to the inflation outlook were still tilted to the upside.

BEA released May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays on June 25 showing PCE price index up 4.1 percent YoY and core PCE up 3.4 percent YoY. Both headline and core PCE remain above the Fed's 2 percent target and above the section 13 falsification normalization floor of 3.0 percent. Note: bea.gov source bucket not in current registry; source_id=fred used as closest registered bucket; flagged for operator review.

the PCE price index for May increased 4.1 percent from one year ago. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.4 percent from one year ago.

FOMC voted unanimously 12-0 to hold the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent at its June 16-17 meeting, removed previous easing-bias language, and committed to deliver price stability. The statement cited inflation elevated above the 2 percent goal linked to energy supply shocks and provided no forward guidance on rate cuts.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.