Tier 1 · 3× Quiet

Taiwan

Taiwan is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.09, status quiet. ANI News (2026-06-13) reported 6 PLA aircraft sorties with 4 entering the southwestern ADIZ and 8 PLAN vessels around Taiwan. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (2026-06-11) recorded 11 sorties with 9 crossing the Taiwan Strait median line. The position raises on any kinetic cross-strait incident and de-loads on sustained lower PLA activity.

Current probability
9%/ 100
12-MONTH FORWARD HORIZON
Threshold
Any kinetic cross-strait incident
Tier weight
P range
0–25%
Last update
11:25 UTC
Current prob
9%
current
Status
Quiet
·
Tier
Tier 1
weight 3×
P min
0%
floor
P max
25%
ceiling
Updated
11:25 UTC
live
Threshold definition

Any kinetic cross-strait incident

Taiwan is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.09, status quiet. ANI News (2026-06-13) reported 6 PLA aircraft sorties with 4 entering the southwestern ADIZ and 8 PLAN vessels around Taiwan. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (2026-06-11) recorded 11 sorties with 9 crossing the Taiwan Strait median line. The position raises on any kinetic cross-strait incident and de-loads on sustained lower PLA activity.

Recent evidence