Forecast log — whenwecrash.com

2026-06-13 17:26 UTC

move_index (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "move_index",
    "vix"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "move_index",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-12T20:30:15Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "36cd7f81-4756-423c-943d-5ea62991eaac",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 69.3565
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 69.3565
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7648443
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 36cd7f81-4756-423c-943d-5ea62991eaac; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 36cd7f81-4756-423c-943d-5ea62991eaac; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-13 17:25 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

status_change

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T17:25:14.187042+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T17:25:14.187030+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.27,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "status": "watching"
}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7648497
Bank of Japan via fred Grade A registry: FRED Polymarket via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Wall Street Journal via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Japan Ministry of Finance via fred Grade A registry: FRED Bank of Japan via fred Grade A registry: FRED Bank for International Settlements via fred Grade A registry: FRED Bank for International Settlements via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. BOJ June schedule evidence from Bank of Japan, published_at 2026-06-12, shows June 16 Statement on Monetary Policy and June 24 Summary of Opinions for…

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. BOJ June schedule evidence from Bank of Japan, published_at 2026-06-12, shows June 16 Statement on Monetary Policy and June 24 Summary of Opinions for the meeting held on June 15, 16, while Polymarket, published_at 2026-06-13, shows "25 bps increase" at 99% and Wall Street Journal, published_at 2026-06-12, says the BOJ is widely expected to raise interest rates to 1% during the June 2026 policy-decision window. Japan Ministry of Finance, published_at 2026-05-29, reports JPY 11,734.9billion in foreign exchange intervention operations for April 28, 2026 through May 27, 2026, and Bank of Japan, published_at 2026-04-28, shows a 6-3 majority vote to keep the call rate around 0.75 percent with dissenters proposing around 1.0 percent. BIS, published_at 2026-05-01, states that during carry trade periods a 25 basis point monetary policy surprise produces an almost 10% move in the Japanese yen and confirms significant unwinding of short futures on monetary tightening shock days. Framework section 13 falsification is not met on the evidence set: there is no confirmed pre-run BOJ unexpected hike, no confirmed implied-vol criterion breach, and no confirmed carry-catalyst Nikkei shock; section 13.6 condition d is also not met because the cited BOJ and market evidence point to continued normalization pressure, not a pause or slowed normalization. Status watching remains warranted: the carry trigger is not confirmed through the material unwind threshold, but official intervention, imminent BOJ decision timing, and cited carry-deleveraging mechanics place the lane close enough to liquidation risk to preserve a watch state.
2026-06-13 15:58 UTC

rates_fiscal (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T15:58:03.784729+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T15:58:03.784715+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-medium",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-medium",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7653728
Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates via fred Grade A registry: FRED BLS CPI Release via fred Grade A registry: FRED TreasuryDirect Auction Results via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Federal Reserve H.15 (Grade A, 2026-06-12) showed effective fed funds at 3.62, the 10-year Treasury at 4.45, the 30-year Treasury at 4.95, and the 5-y…

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Federal Reserve H.15 (Grade A, 2026-06-12) showed effective fed funds at 3.62, the 10-year Treasury at 4.45, the 30-year Treasury at 4.95, and the 5-year TIPS real yield at 1.78, updating the fast-cadence rates monitor without crossing the policy-rate branch. BLS CPI Release (Grade A, 2026-06-10) showed the all-items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May after 3.8 percent for April, so inflation evidence remains elevated but does not establish a two-consecutive-quarterly CPI breach. TreasuryDirect (Grade A, 2026-06-10) showed the reopened 9-Year 11-Month Note at a 4.538% high yield and 2.57 bid-to-cover ratio, but the official result does not report auction-tail stress. Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes (Grade A, 2026-05-20) kept the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent and recorded several officials resisting easing-bias language, supporting continued watching status rather than a prior or status raise. Falsification per section 13 is mixed: CPI normalization is not established, auction-stress normalization is not established, MOVE normalization is not established from this row set, and Fed policy headroom is supported by the H.15 evidence; evidence_added is the correct action with current_prior and status unchanged.
2026-06-13 15:57 UTC

ig_supply (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T15:57:26.979236+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T15:57:26.979215+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-medium",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-medium",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7653764
SIFMA via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Federal Reserve Board via federalreserve Grade A Breckinridge Capital Advisors via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Apollo Academy via apollo_academy Grade B registry: Apollo Academy (Slok)

Layer A scenario output. SIFMA reports corporate bond issuance through May at $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y, which is the cleanest current scheduled update for the corporate IG supply leg. Breckinridge…

Layer A scenario output. SIFMA reports corporate bond issuance through May at $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y, which is the cleanest current scheduled update for the corporate IG supply leg. Breckinridge reports gross IG supply was $721 billion in 1Q26, up 12-percent y/y, while Apollo Academy says total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers. The Federal Reserve May 2026 new-security-issues table corroborates elevated corporate bond flow with April 2026 bonds at 236,187 million dollars. Section 13 falsification criteria are restated qualitatively here: total IG supply, MOVE stress persistence, SOMA drawdown versus refunding need, and single-tranche hyperscaler issuance remain the relevant checks, but this evidence set supports evidence accumulation rather than a state shift.
2026-06-13 15:22 UTC

concentration (amplifier)

2 of expected 4 validators accepted; 2 missing.
change_type

status_change

consensus_rule_met

3_of_4_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "3_of_4_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "3_of_4_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T15:22:39.229473Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T15:20:33.372304Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_state": null
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_state": 0.62,
  "display_value": "SPY Information Technology at 37.42% as of Jun 11 2026; ETFGI reports $78.62 billion May equity ETF inflow; no active flow amplification observed",
  "raw_metric_unit": "percent Information Technology weight in SPY",
  "raw_metric_value": 37.42
}
```
expected_quorum

3_of_4

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

2

final_rule

3_of_4_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7655853
State Street Global Advisors via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global BlackRock iShares via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global ETFGI LLP via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Mace News via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Goldman Sachs via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

State Street Global Advisors, Grade A, reports SPY fund top holdings as of Jun 11 2026 led by NVIDIA at 7.84%, Apple at 6.83%, Microsoft at 4.56%, Amazon at 3.71%, Alphabet Class A at 3.30%, Broadcom …

State Street Global Advisors, Grade A, reports SPY fund top holdings as of Jun 11 2026 led by NVIDIA at 7.84%, Apple at 6.83%, Microsoft at 4.56%, Amazon at 3.71%, Alphabet Class A at 3.30%, Broadcom at 2.88%, Alphabet Class C at 2.65%, Meta at 1.96%, Tesla at 1.77%, and Micron at 1.76%; it also reports Information Technology at 37.42%. BlackRock iShares, Grade A, corroborates the sector concentration signal with IVV Information Technology at 37.16% of market value as of Jun 09 2026. ETFGI LLP, Grade B, reports $189.01 billion of US ETF net inflows in May, $837.35 billion year-to-date net inflows, and $78.62 billion of equity ETF net inflows over the month, so the current flow evidence is inflow-dominated rather than an observed redemption cascade. Mace News carrying BofA Global Research Fund Manager Survey data, Grade B via secondary-cited primary treatment, reports US equities at net 20% overweight and the crowded-trade ranking at Long global semiconductors 73% versus Long Magnificent 7 14%, while Goldman Sachs, Grade B, reports semiconductor profit-taking and rising ETF macro-product hedges rather than a confirmed forced deleveraging event. Layer A scenario output with section 7.7 layer independence: structural index concentration remains elevated, but the amplification mechanism is conditional and current evidence favors mechanical weight concentration over active flow amplification. Falsification framework thresholds from section 13 are not confirmed by the fetched evidence; bull-case section 13.6 is also not fully met, so this is a downward current_state reset to 0.62 rather than a quiet-state clearance.
2026-06-13 14:02 UTC

basis_trade (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T14:02:04.698058+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T13:59:40.727259+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "sonnet",
      "prompt_hash": "65ee55b9f9a34568452c6b4a526cf168dfbc05a70e5fa9752e7e4764e0b2c8a3",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "5b22cde1d2262af772868e305d6abd6528a79476e12b5f1075613037fe0f5dbe",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7660687
Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR

Federal Reserve Bank of New York repo operations quote operationDate 2026-06-12 with totalAmtSubmitted: 0 and totalAmtAccepted: 0 in both overnight full-allotment repo windows, so the cited repo row d…

Federal Reserve Bank of New York repo operations quote operationDate 2026-06-12 with totalAmtSubmitted: 0 and totalAmtAccepted: 0 in both overnight full-allotment repo windows, so the cited repo row does not show an SRF utilization spike. Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR quotes effectiveDate: 2026-06-11 and percentRate: 3.60, while Federal Reserve Board PRATES quotes Value: 3.65, ForDate: 06/11/2026, and LastUpdated: 06/10/2026; evaluated against the entity threshold_definition SOFR-IORB > 25 bps, these comparator quotes do not require a state-change claim. Federal Reserve H.4.1 quotes Release Date: June 11, 2026, Wednesday Jun 10, 2026, Repurchase agreements 6 5, Reverse repurchase agreements 12 317,298, and Other deposits held by depository institutions 3,111,454, updating repo-plumbing inputs without a separate SRF utilization figure in the fetched release. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission row quotes Release No. 34-105619, File No. SR-ICC-2026-005, June 5, 2026, and an ICE Clear Credit LLC Treasury Clearing Service documentation filing, which is implementation evidence rather than a CCP clearing-rule milestone delay. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Falsification criteria per section 13 remain the relevant raise tests: MOVE above 130 for five or more sessions, SRF utilization spike, or CCP clearing-rule milestone delayed past the Dec. 31, 2026 / June 30, 2027 framework dates; this is evidence accumulation only, with current_prior 0.12 and status quiet unchanged.
2026-06-13 13:07 UTC

private_credit (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T13:07:06.891304+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T13:07:06.891304+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.25,
  "status": "active"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7663984
Wall Street Journal via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Financial Times via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg HPS Corporate Lending Fund Schedule TO-I via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Alternative Credit Investor via alternative_credit_investor Grade B Alternative Credit Investor via alternative_credit_investor Grade B

Wall Street Journal (2026-06-13, Grade B) adds a fresh HLEND stress point: investors requested 13.3% of shares in the second quarter of 2026, up from 9.3%, and BlackRock will repurchase only 5%; the s…

Wall Street Journal (2026-06-13, Grade B) adds a fresh HLEND stress point: investors requested 13.3% of shares in the second quarter of 2026, up from 9.3%, and BlackRock will repurchase only 5%; the same quote also names BCRED at 10% and Cliffwater at 17% for its $31 billion fund. Financial Times (2026-06-12, Grade B) separately reports BlackRock's $13bn HPS Corporate Lending Fund honoured less than 40% of redemption requests, while SEC EDGAR (2026-05-11, Grade A) shows the underlying HPS tender offer was capped at 25,076,907 shares, approximately 5% of shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026. Alternative Credit Investor (2026-06-03, Grade B) reports Moody's Ratings moved Blackstone Secured Lending Fund and Golub Capital BDC from stable to negative, while Alternative Credit Investor (2026-06-05, Grade B) adds a Moody's Analytics counterfactor that loan marks may overstate BDC credit deterioration. The trigger is already active and at p_max, so no further prior or status move is available; this is Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Section 13.6 bull-case conditions remain unmet because the fresh evidence continues to show redemption caps and negative outlook actions rather than sustained normalization.
2026-06-12 12:00 UTC

bdc_nav_discount (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "bdc_nav_discount"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "bdc_nav_discount",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-12T12:00:38Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bdcinvestor",
  "source_run_uuid": "bfd2e9c6-7545-4596-b04d-6adfec4cbf99",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": -22.0
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": -22.0
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7754370
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run bfd2e9c6-7545-4596-b04d-6adfec4cbf99; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run bfd2e9c6-7545-4596-b04d-6adfec4cbf99; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.

2026-06-11 18:18 UTC

ig_supply (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T20:19:02+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T20:19:02+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value, entity_type amplifier is allowed, and evidence_uuids are present. Check 2 quote-fidelity and freshness pass against Federal Reserve H.15, U.S. Treasury, and SIFMA primary rows; the numeric and date claims in reasoning_summary are literally supported. Check 3 paper discipline passes because section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, not probability, section 13 is treated only as audit criteria, and no prohibited phrase or layer arithmetic appears.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode. Check 2 is satisfied by three cited ig_supply rows from Federal Reserve H.15, U.S. Department of the Treasury, and SIFMA, with numeric/date claims matching the raw quotes and current scheduled official releases for this slow-cadence amplifier. Check 3 passes because the reasoning uses section 7.4 scenario-output framing, avoids probability language and layer arithmetic, and treats section 13 criteria as audit checks only.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7818087

Federal Reserve H.15 via fred Grade A registry: FRED U.S. Department of the Treasury via treasury Grade A registry: U.S. Treasury SIFMA via sifma Grade A registry: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association

Layer A scenario output under section 7.4, not a probability claim. The SIFMA row states: Issuance (through May) $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y; Trading (through May) $69.6 billion ADV, +13.1% Y/Y; Outstanding (as of 4Q25) $11.5 trillion, +3.5% Y/Y. The Federal Reserve H.15 row states: Release date: June 10, 2026; Jun 9 Treasury constant maturities: 10-year 4.53; 20-year 5.02; 30-year 5.01. The U.S. Department of the Treasury row states that the table presents actual auction sizes for the February to April 2026 quarter and anticipated auction sizes for the May to July 2026 quarter, and that seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter will be addressed through changes in regular bill auction sizes and/or CMBs. Section 13 falsification criteria remain audit checks only; this evidence_added proposal does not assert that any criterion was met or not met beyond what is directly observable in the cited quotes.

2026-06-11 17:52 UTC

brent_curve (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_curve"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_curve",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:42:34Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "cac488bb-2474-487a-94da-ed8e310cd087",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.31
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.31
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7819641
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run cac488bb-2474-487a-94da-ed8e310cd087; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run cac488bb-2474-487a-94da-ed8e310cd087; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:47 UTC

tsy_auction_tail (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "tsy_auction_tail"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "tsy_auction_tail",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:03:50Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "36240364-29ba-4b84-86eb-162cc86c4e35",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.2
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.2
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7819946
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 36240364-29ba-4b84-86eb-162cc86c4e35; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 36240364-29ba-4b84-86eb-162cc86c4e35; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:42 UTC

jgb_10y (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "jgb_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "jgb_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:31:08Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "b76f2580-b6f7-44b6-a959-c0ae7612808a",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.681
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.681
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7820272
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run b76f2580-b6f7-44b6-a959-c0ae7612808a; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run b76f2580-b6f7-44b6-a959-c0ae7612808a; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:41 UTC

treasury_10y (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "treasury_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "treasury_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T19:30:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "1627fa94-a232-4ad6-848f-7c10ac9b856b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 4.55
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 4.55
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7820340
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 1627fa94-a232-4ad6-848f-7c10ac9b856b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 1627fa94-a232-4ad6-848f-7c10ac9b856b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:38 UTC

hy_oas (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hy_oas"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hy_oas",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T20:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "federalreserve",
  "source_run_uuid": "eb95dc03-5adb-42ae-bbce-33bba17c49c3",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.8
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.8
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7820501
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run eb95dc03-5adb-42ae-bbce-33bba17c49c3; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run eb95dc03-5adb-42ae-bbce-33bba17c49c3; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:36 UTC

brent_spot (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_spot"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_spot",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:26:03Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "3c7fbc44-5ef1-4f31-82ad-05b7917fd46b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 92.87
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 92.87
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7820593
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 3c7fbc44-5ef1-4f31-82ad-05b7917fd46b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 3c7fbc44-5ef1-4f31-82ad-05b7917fd46b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:36 UTC

vix_inversion (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix_inversion"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix_inversion",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:20:16Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "88317233-600b-4de3-9f1d-831dc81c056b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.82
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.82
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7820650
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 88317233-600b-4de3-9f1d-831dc81c056b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 88317233-600b-4de3-9f1d-831dc81c056b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:33 UTC

vix (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:18:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "211921a2-2505-4435-9e1d-fa1078e76b89",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 21.62
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 21.62
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7820811
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 211921a2-2505-4435-9e1d-fa1078e76b89; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 211921a2-2505-4435-9e1d-fa1078e76b89; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:32 UTC

move_index (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "move_index"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "move_index",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T20:31:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "700c8721-129f-49d4-8982-08897e991ac4",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 73.9463
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 73.9463
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

7820864
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 700c8721-129f-49d4-8982-08897e991ac4; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 700c8721-129f-49d4-8982-08897e991ac4; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:16 UTC

cre_debt_wall (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T17:16:38.411698+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T17:14:27.424106+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "codex_exec_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "codex_exec_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_state": 0.65,
  "display_value": "$875B"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7821814
Trepp via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg CRED iQ via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg FDIC via fdic Grade A registry: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Reserve Board via federalreserve Grade A

Trepp (Grade B, 2026-06-10) reports the CMBS special servicing rate decreased by 51 basis points in May to 10.86%, with office down 91 basis points to 16.75% and multifamily down 57 basis points to 8.…

Trepp (Grade B, 2026-06-10) reports the CMBS special servicing rate decreased by 51 basis points in May to 10.86%, with office down 91 basis points to 16.75% and multifamily down 57 basis points to 8.51%. CRED iQ (Grade B, 2026-06-05) reports May 2026 top-25 MSA CMBS distress at 12.7%, up from 12.2% in June 2025, with 17 of 25 markets increasing year over year. FDIC (Grade A, 2026-05-27) reports non-owner-occupied CRE PDNA for banks above $250 billion declined for the sixth consecutive quarter to 3.40%, while the Federal Reserve Board (Grade A, 2026-05-08) says a large volume of CRE debt matures over the coming year and forced sales could pressure CRE prices. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4; not a probability claim. Section 13 raise criteria are not met because the cited CRED iQ distress evidence remains below the 15% structural distress threshold, no cited evidence establishes MBA overall delinquency above 5%, no cited FAU bank-count row crosses 60 banks, and no Top-30 CRE-concentrated issuer failure is evidenced; section 13.6 de-load is not met because the cited evidence is mixed and still elevated rather than showing sustained normalized CRE refinancing conditions. Evidence_added with no current_state shift from 0.65.
2026-06-11 17:08 UTC

concentration (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "n/a",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T17:03:37.619113+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T17:02:21Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai_via_codex_A",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "f747226b351314a5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode. State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and State Street Investment Management rows support the cited dates and numeric claims, are fresh for an amplifier, and the Layer A language is framed as scenario output rather than probability. No state shift is proposed, so magnitude and framework coherence are consistent with evidence_added.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "b4eefc9297938bc7",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All five checks pass. Check 1 schema fits ProposalPayload for an amplifier evidence_added action; Check 2 numeric and date claims are supported by State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and State Street Investment Management rows within the amplifier freshness window. Check 3 keeps Layer A as scenario output, not a probability claim, references section 13 and section 13.6 without prohibited phrases or layer arithmetic; Checks 4 and 5 are coherent because no magnitude/state shift is proposed.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7822309
State Street SSGA via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global BlackRock iShares via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global Investment Company Institute (ICI) via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global State Street Investment Management via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

State Street SSGA (2026-06-11, Grade A) lists SPY Jun 10 holdings with NVIDIA at 7.80%, Apple at 6.86%, Microsoft at 4.73%, and information technology at 36.99%, while BlackRock iShares (2026-06-10, G…

State Street SSGA (2026-06-11, Grade A) lists SPY Jun 10 holdings with NVIDIA at 7.80%, Apple at 6.86%, Microsoft at 4.73%, and information technology at 36.99%, while BlackRock iShares (2026-06-10, Grade A) reports IVV net assets of $804,882,368,587 and information technology exposure of 36.88%. ICI (2026-06-09, Grade A/B) reports ETF shares issued exceeded shares redeemed by $61.28 billion for the week ended June 3, 2026, and State Street Investment Management (2026-05-29, Grade B) reports equity ETF flows of 119,251 in its table and says US, global, and international-developed ETFs captured 96% of all inflows. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim: mechanical index concentration remains the visible concentration channel, while the flow rows do not confirm a forced-unwind channel; amplification is conditional, not automatic. Section 13 falsification is not newly escalated by these rows because no source-published Magnificent 7 aggregate breach above the framework threshold, no ETF redemption stress, and no vol-targeted fund deleveraging event appears in the fetched evidence. Section 13.6 bull-case downshift conditions are not established because the fetched evidence does not show the required earnings-guidance persistence and volatility-regime normalization combination; evidence_added with no state shift is warranted.
2026-06-11 16:51 UTC

equity_valuation (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric accepted_value; evidence_added only",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T16:48:47.229001Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T16:46:47.347465Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Proposal mode Check 1 passes for amplifier/equity_valuation with evidence_added and empty new_value. Check 2 numeric and date claims match the cited Multpl, FRED, FactSet, Damodaran, and IMF quotes, with fresh Grade A/B material. Check 3 paper anchors are in the hash file and the reasoning uses section 7.4 scenario-output framing plus the section 7.3 n=1 caveat without arithmetic layer combination; no magnitude or coherence issue is apparent for an evidence_added no-state-shift proposal.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode. The ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value, and the numeric/date claims in the reasoning are supported by the Multpl 2026-06-10 CAPE 40.87 row, FRED 2026-06-10 S\u0026P 500 row, Damodaran June 1 ERP 4.18% row, and FactSet June 5 forward P/E and guidance row. Paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 scenario-output framing is explicit, section 7.3 CAPE \u003e=40 carries the n=1 caveat, and no Layer A/B/C arithmetic or prohibited probability language appears.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_state": 0.99,
  "display_value": "CAPE 41.2",
  "raw_metric_value": null
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7823351
Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data) via multpl Grade A registry: Multpl FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC via fred Grade A registry: FRED FactSet Research Systems Inc. via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Aswath Damodaran / NYU Stern via fred Grade A registry: FRED International Monetary Fund via imf Grade A

Fresh evidence updates the valuation read without warranting a numeric state shift: Multpl.com reports Current Shiller PE Ratio: 40.87 with published_at 2026-06-10, still above the regime-defining 40 …

Fresh evidence updates the valuation read without warranting a numeric state shift: Multpl.com reports Current Shiller PE Ratio: 40.87 with published_at 2026-06-10, still above the regime-defining 40 anchor and below the Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999) listed in the same row. FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC reports 2026-06-10: 7,266.99, while Damodaran / NYU Stern reports Implied ERP on June 1, 2026 = 4.18% with a 4.44% US Treasury rate, so the section 13 ERP-compression falsification condition is not met. Because CAPE remains above 40, the section 7.3 n=1 historical analog caveat applies; this proposal uses Layer A scenario-output framing per section 7.4 and does not convert that analog into an independent-event probability. FactSet Research Systems Inc. reports the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.1 and that 84% (72 out of 86) of oil-citing S&P 500 companies with 2026 annual EPS guidance increased or maintained guidance, so section 13.6 bull-case de-loading is also not established. Section 13 falsification criteria are not newly satisfied by the cited evidence: the cited rows do not demonstrate CAPE crossing 45 for six months, broader-market P/E expansion independent of AI, or ERP compression below 1.5%; current_state remains 0.99 and evidence_added with no state shift is appropriate.
2026-06-11 16:32 UTC

stablecoin (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "validator_acceptance",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T15:50:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T15:50:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "9d9064b0bc52dd0e",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "9b3e51a6699be7dd",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.05,
  "status": "quiet",
  "threshold_definition": "USDT \u003c $0.97 for \u003e 1 hour"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7824438
CoinGecko via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg DefiLlama via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Circle (USDC Issuer) via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Bank for International Settlements via bis Grade A

CoinGecko (Grade C, 2026-06-11, new_upload_0) and DefiLlama (Grade C, 2026-06-11, new_upload_1) show USDT and USDC close to 1.00, including CoinGecko prints of tether usd 0.998904 and usd-coin usd 0.9…

CoinGecko (Grade C, 2026-06-11, new_upload_0) and DefiLlama (Grade C, 2026-06-11, new_upload_1) show USDT and USDC close to 1.00, including CoinGecko prints of tether usd 0.998904 and usd-coin usd 0.999779, and DefiLlama prints of Tether USDT price 0.9989785723418749 and USD Coin USDC price 0.9998452333387212. Circle (Grade A/B issuer disclosure, 2026-06-08, new_upload_2) says USDC is always redeemable 1:1 and gives reserve components as 20.15 + 11.47 + 0.69 + 43.82. Bank for International Settlements (Grade A, 2026-06-01, new_upload_3) reports a structural Treasury-bill channel from stablecoin flows, including 0.71 basis points on impact and about 4 basis points within 10 days, but not an active de-peg event. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Section 13 stablecoin updating is treated broadly: the cited evidence supports stable reserve disclosure, redemption availability, no observed de-peg stress in the cited price snapshots, and no cited bill-market stress from an active de-peg event. Evidence accumulation supports current_prior 0.05 and status quiet with no state change.

2026-06-11 16:10 UTC

basis_trade (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "accept_count": 2,
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "not_applicable",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T16:07:36.565691Z",
  "vote_count": 2,
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Proposal-mode Check 1 passes for trigger/evidence_added with empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, and validation_team as a dict. Check 2 passes because the cited Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board rows are Grade A primary sources dated June 10-11, 2026, and the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary match raw_payload.quote. Check 3 passes because the proposal uses section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing, cites section 13 falsification criteria as framework constants, and makes no Layer B/C arithmetic combination or prohibited probability claim.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null,
      "tolerance_notes": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. The ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value and dict validation_team; Check 2 quote-fidelity is satisfied because the NY Fed and Federal Reserve Board numeric/date claims are limited to raw_payload.quote text, with fresh Grade A official rows. Check 3 is satisfied because section 7.4 and section 13 anchors exist, Layer A is framed as scenario output, and no Layer B/C arithmetic or prohibited phrase appears.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null,
      "tolerance_notes": null
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet",
  "threshold_definition": "SOFR-IORB \u003e 25 bps"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7825796

Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED

This corrected proposal relies only on the stored raw_payload.quote text in the three cited evidence rows and does not assert that the cited live endpoints showed the same rows at validator review time. The stored NY Fed repo evidence quote contains operationDate 2026-06-11, operationType Repo, operationMethod Full Allotment, term Overnight, releaseTime 08:15, totalAmtSubmitted 0, totalAmtAccepted 0, and minimumBidRate 3.75. The stored SOFR quote contains effectiveDate 2026-06-10, percentRate 3.59, and volumeInBillions 3023, while the stored Federal Reserve Board PRATES quote contains Value 3.65, ForDate 06/11/2026, EffectiveDate 12/11/2025, and LastUpdated 06/10/2026; evaluated against the entity threshold_definition SOFR-IORB > 25 bps, these stored comparator quotes do not require a state-change claim. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Falsification criteria per section 13 remain the relevant raise tests: MOVE above 130 for five or more sessions, SRF utilization spike, or CCP clearing-rule milestone delay past Dec 2026 / Jun 2027. This is evidence accumulation only, with no current live-source state claim and no state-change claim in this proposal.

2026-06-11 15:45 UTC

ai_cyber (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

prior_change

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T15:42:17Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T15:41:22Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ec8fab11d60c1eb0",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "5c88ff6211362b4b",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.14,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.16
}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7827309
CISA via cisa Grade A registry: Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Wall Street Journal via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Anthropic via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

CISA (Grade A, 2026-06-10; new_upload_0) issued BOD 26-04 and explicitly tied AI use by cyber threat actors to a narrower defender reaction window between patch release and possible exploitation. Wall…

CISA (Grade A, 2026-06-10; new_upload_0) issued BOD 26-04 and explicitly tied AI use by cyber threat actors to a narrower defender reaction window between patch release and possible exploitation. Wall Street Journal (Grade B, 2026-06-10; new_upload_1) reports Visa's Project Glasswing testing showed AI can construct attack chains, shifting the burden toward machine-speed validation, prioritization, and fixing. Anthropic (Grade B, 2026-06-09; new_upload_2) launched Claude Mythos 5 for selected cyberdefenders and infrastructure providers through Project Glasswing, with cyber safeguards lifted in some areas. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Falsification per section 13 remains unmet: no confirmed systemic AI service outage, no SIC 6000-series Item 1.05 filing with disclosed loss above the operator materiality threshold, and no CISA or joint advisory naming an AI-enabled vector with cross-firm financial transmission. The fresh Grade A official directive plus new Grade B operational evidence show trajectory acceleration, but below threshold; raise current_prior from 0.14 to 0.16 while keeping status quiet.
2026-06-11 15:05 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T18:03:41.437423+03:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T18:02:16.260274+03:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "dd25f1038bbab9f2",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "a77cfd65de83b957",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.27,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

7829656
Bank of Japan via boj Grade A The Business Times / Bloomberg via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Reuters via Daily Sabah via reuters Grade A registry: Reuters

Bank of Japan June 11 official FX data showed USD/JPY at 160.50-51 at 17:00 JST after 160.52-54 at 9:00 JST, with a 160.43 - 160.54 range. The Business Times / Bloomberg June 11 report said overnight …

Bank of Japan June 11 official FX data showed USD/JPY at 160.50-51 at 17:00 JST after 160.52-54 at 9:00 JST, with a 160.43 - 160.54 range. The Business Times / Bloomberg June 11 report said overnight index swaps showed the chance of a hike briefly fell to as low as about 73 per cent before almost fully pricing it in again, while the yen was at 160.5 per US dollar and a 25-basis-point hike still looked all but certain. Reuters via Daily Sabah Jun 10, 2026 reported Governor Ueda would skip the upcoming June 15-16 policy meeting while hospitalized for about two weeks, working remotely and expected to attend the July 30 to 31 meeting. Layer A scenario-output framing under section 7.4, with layer independence under section 7.7: the cited rows are material but confirmatory, supporting evidence_added rather than a state change. Section 13 falsification and section 13.6 bull-case conditions are not met by the cited evidence: the rows do not show an unexpected BOJ rate hike, an implied-volatility breach, a Nikkei carry-shock event, or a BOJ communication of pause or slowed normalization.