Forecast log — whenwecrash.com

2026-05-16 20:42 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "accept_count": 2,
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T20:43:00.162205+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T20:43:00.138922+00:00",
  "vote_count": 2,
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "b4203c969eeac8e60cd8c126eb01addb4b36d655",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 PASS: entity_type is trigger, evidence_uuids non-empty (5), validation_team is a dict, all required fields present. Check 2 PASS: two Grade A rows (source_name Bank of Japan, UUIDs c72bcf6f and 9bb5e6b1) satisfy Tier-1 minimum; Nippon.com row (9b5eed9c) and TradingEconomics rows (612d702d, 12ec2f0a) used as corroborating/anchor only; all within 90-day window. Check 3 PASS: Layer A scenario-output framing present per section 7.4; section 13.1 falsification restatement present; section 13.6 bull-case condition (d) correctly addressed; no hard_reject_phrases hit; no CCI-as-probability language; no cross-layer arithmetic. Check 4 PASS: no prior change proposed (prior held at 0.18), so no magnitude shift requiring Grade-A support; worst-grade propagation not load-bearing here. Check 5 PASS: USD/JPY at 158.59 (above 140 threshold), Nikkei -1.99% (below 5% catalyst threshold), and accelerating BOJ hawkishness are mutually coherent; no active-state contradiction identified.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "b4203c969eeac8e60cd8c126eb01addb4b36d655",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload fields and enums fit evidence_added for trigger yen_carry, cited evidence includes Bank of Japan Grade A and Nippon.com Grade B rows within the Tier-1 aging window, and section 7.4 Layer A is framed as scenario output, not a probability claim. The no-state-change magnitude is plausible because BOJ hawkish evidence accumulates while the cited TradingEconomics USD/JPY and Nikkei anchors remain below section 13 trigger-crossing thresholds.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.18,
  "status": "watching"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10082084

BOJ Summary of Opinions from the April 27-28 meeting (released May 12, 2026, Grade A -- Bank of Japan) shows board members signaling June hike: 'It is quite possible the BOJ will raise interest rates from the next meeting onward, even if the future course of the Middle East conflict remains unclear' and 'the BOJ should raise rates soon barring evident signs of an economic slowdown' -- quotes verbatim per new_upload_0. BOJ board member Masu (May 14, 2026, Grade B -- Nippon.com, Kagoshima speech) stated 'I believe it is desirable to raise the policy rate at the earliest stage possible' (new_upload_1) -- a fourth board member publicly aligning with hike urgency beyond the three April 28 dissenters (Takata, Tamura, Nakagawa), broadening the hawkish bloc further from any pause or slowed normalization signal. USD/JPY at 158.5880 on May 15, 2026 (Grade C anchor -- TradingEconomics, uuid 12ec2f0a), far above the 140 trigger threshold (JPY < 140 in < 5 sessions); Nikkei 225 fell 1.99% to 61,409 on May 15 (Grade C -- TradingEconomics, new_upload_2), well below the 5% single-day carry-catalyst threshold in section 13.1. Section 13.6 bull-case condition (d) -- BOJ communicates pause or slowed normalization -- is not met; normalization is accelerating. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. No section 13.1 falsification criteria crossed; prior unchanged at 0.18; evidence accumulation, no state change warranted.

2026-05-16 19:07 UTC

basis_trade (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "accept_count": 2,
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T19:07:09.790369+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T19:07:09.776566+00:00",
  "vote_count": 2,
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "a0114394227bf53ecce0728f7e26c52c93a7b013",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 passes: required fields present, entity_type=trigger is a valid enum, validation_team is a dict not an array, evidence_uuids non-empty. Check 2 passes: source_name=Office of Financial Research is Grade A and published 2026-03-03 (74 days at fetch time), satisfying the Tier-1 minimum of at least one Grade A source within the 90-day window; source_name=Financial Stability Board at 101 days marginally exceeds the Tier-1 window but does not invalidate since it is corroborating structural background and the OFR row independently clears the minimum; Yahoo Finance correctly propagated as Grade C per specialist labeling. Check 3 passes: Layer A scenario-output framing is explicit per section 7.4, section 13 falsification criteria are restated and confirmed uncrossed (MOVE at 70.24 vs. 130+ threshold), no hard_reject_phrases detected in reasoning_summary. Checks 4 and 5 pass: change_type=evidence_added proposes no numerical prior or status shift so no magnitude plausibility concern applies, and the proposal is internally coherent -- structural fragility documented but no directional trigger firing as of mid-May 2026.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "a0114394227bf53ecce0728f7e26c52c93a7b013",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: trigger payload schema fits, evidence_uuids are present, and validation_team is a dict. OFR and Financial Stability Board are Grade A sources within the aging window; Yahoo Finance is Grade C but only supports the MOVE non-trigger observation. Paper discipline is adequate because section 13 falsification criteria are stated and the Layer A wording is scenario-output framing with no prohibited probability language or magnitude move.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10087834

OFR Brief (Grade A, March 3, 2026) confirms ~75% of hedge fund Treasury repo activity remains non-centrally cleared, with dealer balance-sheet incentives -- not operational readiness -- sustaining the structural gap ahead of the December 2026 SEC mandate. FSB report (Grade A, February 4, 2026) documents ~70% of the non-cleared segment operating at zero haircuts with high collateral rehypothecation, establishing documented systemic fragility if a vol spike materializes. MOVE index at 70.24 as of May 13, 2026 (Grade C, Yahoo Finance aggregator) remains well below the section 13 falsification threshold of 130+ for 5 or more consecutive sessions; no Fed SRF utilization spike is observed and no CCP clearing-rule deadline extension has been announced. Layer A scenario output -- structural vulnerability is documented and grows as clearing-mandate compliance approaches, but no directional trigger criteria from section 13 are crossed. Falsification: section 13 criteria -- MOVE >130 for >=5 sessions or SRF utilization spike -- remain uncrossed as of mid-May 2026. Evidence accumulation only; no prior or status change warranted.

2026-05-16 18:36 UTC

taiwan (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T18:36:17.898291+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T18:36:17.879654+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "396deaca65068e8783185667091d11c5142f6826",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 pass: entity_type trigger valid, validation_team is a dict, evidence_uuids non-empty for evidence_added change_type. Check 2 pass: publishers are Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via GlobalSecurity.org (Grade A or B per section 10 -- primary government source accessed through a credible defense aggregator) and Focus Taiwan/CNA (Grade B national news agency); Tier-1 minimum of at least one Grade A or B met across all 4 rows; all fetched within 90-day window of 2026-05-16. Check 3 pass: reasoning_summary explicitly frames Layer A output as \u0027not a probability claim\u0027 per section 7.4 factor-copula, cites section 7.7 layer independence, invokes section 13.1 falsification criteria for a raise; no hard-reject phrases present; section 13.6 bull-case conditions not required since no downgrade is proposed. Checks 4 and 5 pass: change_type is evidence_added with new_value of empty dict and prior held at 0.09 -- no magnitude move to evaluate; no active-state contradictions flagged.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "396deaca65068e8783185667091d11c5142f6826",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: trigger/evidence_added schema is valid, evidence_uuids are non-empty, and Taiwan MND rows count as Grade A within the Tier-1 aging window. Paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 7.7 independence is preserved, and section 13 falsification criteria are restated; no magnitude move is proposed, so the quiet/no-state-change conclusion is plausible.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.09,
  "status": "quiet"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10089686

Taiwan MND May 6 (Grade A): PLA conducted a designated 'joint combat readiness patrol' -- 20 sorties (J-10, J-16, KJ-500, drones), 16 median line crossings, coordinated with PLAN vessels. Taiwan MND did not declare a rehearsal-of-assault; labeled activity 'harassment under pretext of patrol.' Section 13.1 falsification criteria for a raise not met: ODNI March 18 assessment unchanged ('no fixed invasion timeline'), PLA exercise scale threshold not crossed (no >2 carrier groups, no >100k troop equivalent), no Taiwan MND rehearsal-of-assault declaration. Taiwan MND May 2 (Grade A): elevated sortie day -- 29 sorties, 15 median line crossings -- within gray-zone escalation pattern, no designation issued. Taiwan MND May 13 (Grade A): routine 2-sortie surveillance day coinciding with Trump-Xi summit opening; no escalation designation. Xi Trump-Xi summit warning (Focus Taiwan, Grade B, May 14): experts assessed language as 'stronger' with military undertone; Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council detected no unexpected information -- gray-zone diplomatic coercion only, not a kinetic cross-strait incident per threshold definition. Polymarket 'military clash before 2027' at 9% as of May 16 (Grade C anchor). Layer A scenario output per section 7.4 factor-copula; not a probability claim; section 7.7 layer independence preserved. Prior holds at base 0.09; status remains quiet; no state change warranted -- evidence accumulation only.

2026-05-16 16:29 UTC

ai_cyber (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T16:29:15.635488+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T16:24:34.448732+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "961b10aacdb5715dcf8cd9e606efcc6126d8f40a",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 schema fits evidence_added for trigger ai_cyber with empty new_value and non-empty evidence_uuids. Checks 2-5 pass: Tier-3 evidence can use A/B/C sources, IMF/CrowdStrike/Mandiant items are fresh, Layer A is framed as scenario output not a probability claim, no magnitude move is proposed, and bucketed source_ids are not a violation.",
      "role": "B"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "961b10aacdb5715dcf8cd9e606efcc6126d8f40a",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 pass: required fields present for evidence_added, new_value is {}, validation_team is a dict, entity_type is trigger, high_stakes false is correct for no prior/status change. Check 2 pass: IMF blog (Adrian/Gaidosch/Ravikumar) is Grade A per named-sources list in trigger_ai_cyber.md; published 2026-05-07, 9 days old, well within 90-day Tier-1 window; CrowdStrike Grade B 81 days old and Mandiant Grade B 54 days old both within window; bis/apollo bucket workarounds are documented as intentional and publisher-grade rule assigns A and B respectively. Check 3 pass: Layer A scenario-output framing correct per section 7.4; no hard_reject_phrases found in reasoning_summary; section 13 falsification criteria restated verbatim with correct thresholds (SIC-6000 Item 1.05 with loss above 0.5% market-cap OR cross-firm transmission); Mandiant bull-case qualifier explicitly included. Check 4 na: no prior or status change proposed; evidence_added with new_value {} warrants no magnitude plausibi",
      "role": "A"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.1,
  "status": "quiet"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "B",
  "A"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10097308

IMF blog (May 7, 2026; Grade A; Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim; bucketed under 'bis' FK as 'imf' source_id not yet in DB registry) by Adrian, Gaidosch, and Ravikumar explicitly frames AI-enabled cyber as a financial-stability vector, citing: 'Extreme cyber-incident losses could trigger funding strains, raise solvency concerns, and disrupt broader markets.' CrowdStrike 2026 Global Threat Report (Feb 24, 2026; Grade B) records an 89% year-over-year increase in attacks by AI-enabled adversaries with breakout times falling to 29 minutes, a 65% acceleration from 2024. Mandiant M-Trends 2026 (March 23, 2026; Grade B) provides a bull-case qualifier, explicitly stating the firm does not consider 2025 to be the year where breaches were the direct result of AI. No evidence of a systemic AI service outage (the operator-set threshold per GET /api/v1/triggers/ai_cyber) or a SIC-6000 Item 1.05 filing attributing a material loss to an AI-enabled vector was located in the 90-day window; no CISA or joint advisory naming a cross-firm AI-enabled vector was identified within window. Falsification per section 13: a confirmed systemic AI service outage with cross-firm transmission, or a SIC-6000 Item 1.05 with disclosed loss above the 0.5% market-cap threshold, would be required to change the prior above 0.10 or elevate status from quiet. Evidence accumulation reinforces the existing 0.10 base prior; no prior change or status change warranted.

2026-05-16 16:29 UTC

cre_debt_wall (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T16:29:15.261784+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T16:24:34.448732+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": {},
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "de589d59c4dc2ac4cca9796a6273f78c3675a782",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All 5 checks pass. Evidence-added proposal for amplifier cre_debt_wall is schema-fit, uses current A/B/C-acceptable sources for an amplifier, preserves section 7.4 scenario-output framing, cites existing section 13 and section 13.6 anchors, and makes no state or probability shift.",
      "role": "B"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "de589d59c4dc2ac4cca9796a6273f78c3675a782",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 pass: all required schema fields present, entity_type amplifier valid, validation_team is dict, evidence_uuids non-empty. Check 2 pass: 2x Grade A (Mortgage Bankers Association primary surveys), 1x Grade B (FAU academic screener), 1x Grade C (Commercial Observer per section 10 publisher-grade rule -- specialist correctly identified and acknowledged downgrade from moody bucket); all within 180-day amplifier aging window; A/B/C acceptable for Tier-2/3 amplifier. Check 3 pass: Layer A section 7.4 scenario-output framing present and explicit, no hard_reject_phrases detected in reasoning_summary, section 13 falsification thresholds each bounded with numeric comparisons, section 13.6 bull-case correctly evaluated as not met at 12.2 percent distress vs 8 percent required threshold. Checks 4 and 5 pass: new_value is empty with no current_state shift proposed so no quantitative prior move for Grade-C worst-grade propagation to constrain; MBA 4.02 percent, CMBS distress 12.2 percent, and",
      "role": "A"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "B",
  "A"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10097308

MBA CREF Q1 2026 Loan Performance Survey (Grade A): overall commercial mortgage delinquency 4.02 percent, up from 3.86 percent in Q4 2025; CMBS delinquency 5.21 percent, up from 4.97 percent -- both distinct metrics, not conflated; overall rate remains below the 5 percent section 13 falsification threshold. CRED iQ CMBS distress rate inclusive of specially serviced loans (Grade B data, Grade C publisher per paper section 10 publisher-grade rule): 12.2 percent across 50 largest U.S. metros in April 2026, with office at 17 percent and multifamily at 11.4 percent -- below the 15 percent section 13 falsification threshold; CRED iQ February 2026 forecast of 14.5-15 percent by year-end is the primary watchpoint for this metric. FAU screener (Grade B, FDIC Call Report underlying Grade A): 51 of 154 largest banks exceed the 300 percent CRE-to-equity threshold as of Q3 2025, below the 60-bank section 13 falsification threshold and consistent with prior-quarter readings. MBA maturity volumes (Grade A): $875 billion (17 percent of $5.0 trillion outstanding) matures in 2026, a 9 percent decline from 2025 peak -- slow-amplifier framing per paper section 4.5 applies. No section 13 falsification trigger is crossed: overall MBA delinquency below 5 percent, CMBS distress below 15 percent, FAU bank count below 60, no Top-30 issuer failure identified. Bull-case (section 13.6) not met: CMBS distress at 12.2 percent well above the 8 percent required threshold. Layer A scenario output; not a probability claim. Evidence added with no current_state shift.

2026-05-16 16:29 UTC

iran_hormuz (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T16:29:14.932812+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T16:24:34.448732+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "78e509849e28d6d9638394319f58ef66231affff",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All 5 checks pass. Schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value; IEA is Grade A and fresh for Tier-1 evidence sufficiency; section 7.4 scenario-output and section 13 falsification framing are present; no value move is proposed, so magnitude is plausible. World Oil and Axios are non-load-bearing because the IEA row satisfies Check 2.",
      "role": "B"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "78e509849e28d6d9638394319f58ef66231affff",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1: schema valid -- entity_type trigger, change_type evidence_added, new_value empty object is coherent for a no-value-change submission, evidence_uuids non-empty (3 rows), validation_team is a dict. Check 2: IEA Oil Market Report April 2026 (source_id=iea, source_name=IEA Oil Market Report April 2026) is Grade A per section 10; published 2026-04-14, 32 days old, within 90-day Tier-1 window; World Oil and Axios are unregistered, Grade C per worst-grade propagation rule, but one Grade A source satisfies the Tier-1 minimum for evidence_added. Check 3: Layer A scenario-output framing present; parameter_file_hash_at_proposal matches section 13 hash (29e786b5); section 13 falsification criteria correctly applied and checked NOT MET; section 13.6(c) and 13.6(e) bull-case conditions proactively enumerated and checked NOT MET; no hard-reject phrases; no CCI-as-probability language; no arithmetic combination of A/B/C figures. Check 4: no magnitude change proposed -- new_value is empty and ",
      "role": "A"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.42,
  "status": "active"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "B",
  "A"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10097309

IEA Oil Market Report April 2026 (Grade A, iea.org) confirms Hormuz transit collapsed from over 20 mb/d pre-crisis to approximately 3.8 mb/d by early April, with total oil export losses exceeding 13 mb/d -- the largest supply disruption in IEA history. Layer A scenario output; this evidence corroborates the existing active status and 0.42 prior with no directional change proposed. Falsification check (section 13): sustained Hormuz traffic restoration above the 70% threshold -- NOT MET; Brent below $75 for more than 3 months -- NOT MET; ceasefire holding more than 6 months -- NOT MET. Bull-case section 13.6(c): Hormuz partial reopening AND sustained Brent below $85 -- NOT MET (flow at ~3.8 mb/d and active conflict per May 2026 reporting); section 13.6(e): financial stress indicators normalizing -- NOT MET. Publisher note: World Oil (ev_upload_1, May 11) and Axios (ev_upload_2, May 6) are unregistered publishers per the framework grade register and require operator grade assignment before these rows can satisfy the Tier-1 Grade A/B minimum in future prior-change proposals.

2026-05-16 16:29 UTC

stablecoin (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T16:29:14.564009+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T16:24:34.448732+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "892afee593af1f24a338b84bb1e27fe62f25986d",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks pass for evidence_added with no state move. Check 2: OCC is a fresh Grade A source within the Tier-1 aging window; Bankless and KuCoin are treated as lower-grade support, not load-bearing for a move. Section 13 falsification language is present and no prohibited probability phrasing appears.",
      "role": "B"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "892afee593af1f24a338b84bb1e27fe62f25986d",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 2: evidence row 2 (source_name OCC, official regulatory primary source) is Grade A per section 10, satisfying Tier-1 minimum; evidence row 1 (source_name Bankless) is Grade B crypto media per section 10; evidence row 3 (source_name KuCoin Blog) is Grade C aggregator per section 10, worst-grade propagation noted but does not displace the Grade A row; all three rows within the 90-day Tier-1 aging window (oldest published 2026-02-25, fetched 2026-05-16, 80 days). Check 3: no hard-reject phrases found in reasoning_summary; evidence_added with new_value {} carries no layer A/B/C framing obligations; section 13 falsification reference correct and criteria enumerated. Check 4: no magnitude shift proposed (new_value empty dict), so worst-grade propagation does not apply to a prior move. Check 5: quiet status at prior 0.05 is coherent with strong Tether reserve attestation, OCC/GENIUS Act framework advancing, and BIS noting no acute stress or peg break.",
      "role": "A"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.05,
  "status": "quiet"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "B",
  "A"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10097309

Tether Q1 2026 BDO Italia attestation (Grade B via Bankless, May 1 2026): excess reserves $8.23B all-time high against $183.5B liabilities; net profit $1.04B Q1 2026 -- reserves materially exceed liabilities. OCC proposed rulemaking under GENIUS Act (Grade A, treasury source, Feb 25 2026): framework for permitted payment stablecoin issuers advancing, tightening reserve and compliance standards. BIS General Manager de Cos warning (Grade C via KuCoin Blog, Apr 21 2026, caveat: aggregator): $3.5B stablecoin inflow compresses 3-month Treasury yields by 5-8 bps -- Treasury market sensitivity noted, no acute stress observed. No de-peg of any top-3 stablecoin in observation window; threshold 'USDT < $0.97 for > 1 hour' not crossed. Falsification section 13: no sustained (>72h) >5% peg break, no measurable Treasury-bill or MMF disruption from de-peg, reserve backing materially exceeds 100%, no OCC/Treasury intervention triggered -- none of the load-bearing falsification conditions crossed. Evidence accumulation reinforcing existing prior 0.05; status 'quiet' affirmed; no state change proposed.

2026-05-16 16:29 UTC

equity_valuation (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T16:29:14.259620+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T16:24:34.448732+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "04af91144092a18ed1b44d32202cd13a3f7eab32",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All 5 checks pass. Schema fits ProposalPayload for amplifier evidence_added with empty new_value; evidence is fresh for an amplifier and includes Multpl/Shiller Grade A, FactSet Grade A-/B+, and Damodaran/NYU Grade B. Section 7.3 n=1 caveat, section 13 ERP falsification, and section 13.6 bull-case condition handling are present; no state magnitude change is proposed.",
      "role": "B"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "04af91144092a18ed1b44d32202cd13a3f7eab32",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1: schema_fit passes -- all required fields present, entity_type amplifier valid, change_type evidence_added with new_value={} correct per schema, validation_team is dict not array, evidence_uuids non-empty. Check 2: evidence_sufficiency passes -- multpl.com is Grade A per paper section 10 named sources for this amplifier; Damodaran/NYU Stern is Grade B per named sources; FactSet Research is Grade B; all three rows within 180-day amplifier aging window (oldest is Damodaran published 2026-01-10, 126 days before fetch date). Check 3: paper_discipline passes -- Layer C n=1 caveat is present and correctly worded (\"n=1 at the episode level; the 61.9% subsequent-drawdown coverage frequency is descriptive single-episode evidence, not an independent-event probability per section 7.3\"); section 13 ERP falsification threshold correctly cited; section 13.6 bull-case 5-condition gate correctly applied (fewer than 4 conditions confirmed, no state-change-down); no hard_reject_phrases detected;",
      "role": "A"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "B",
  "A"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10097309

Shiller CAPE at 41.66 as of May 15, 2026 (multpl.com mirror of Shiller data, Grade A), down 0.52 from the prior session close but continuing to hold above the section 7.3 regime threshold of 40. Layer C single-episode framing applies: 1999-2000 is the only completed historical episode with CAPE at or above 40 (n=1 at the episode level); the 61.9% subsequent-drawdown coverage frequency is descriptive single-episode evidence, not an independent-event probability per section 7.3. Damodaran implied ERP for US stocks stands at 4.23% as of January 1, 2026 (NYU Stern, Grade B), near the 1960-2025 period average and well above the less-than-1.5% ERP-compression falsification threshold in section 13; no ERP compression signal present. Q1 2026 earnings beat rate reached 84%, above the 5-year average of 78% (FactSet, Grade B), meeting the section 13.6 earnings-beat condition (>=80%); however, fewer than 4 of 5 section 13.6 conditions are confirmed in current evidence, so a bull-case state-change-down is not warranted. No CAPE threshold crossing (not approaching 45 from below; not retreating below 40); current_state of 0.99 is unchanged; evidence_added only.

2026-05-16 16:29 UTC

tether_tbills (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "89cecf4ef6a720cdeac409873329a9f21e5a72ad",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-16T16:29:14.077461+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-16T16:24:34.448732+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": {},
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "a5c9e5e84a2c1ba3679ff4ed3dd7908cf7943fdc",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All 5 checks pass. Check 2 is satisfied by recent Grade A BDO Italia/Tether attestation, SIFMA, and OCC evidence; check 3 passes because the proposal frames Layer A as scenario output and does not use prohibited probability language; check 4 supports evidence_added with no magnitude shift.",
      "role": "B"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "a5c9e5e84a2c1ba3679ff4ed3dd7908cf7943fdc",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All 3 evidence rows contribute at Grade A (BDO Italia ISAE 3000R primary attestation, SIFMA market data, OCC rulemaking bulletin), all fetched 2026-05-16 and within the 180-day amplifier aging window. Layer A scenario-output framing is present per section 7.4; no hard-reject phrases detected; section 13 falsification criteria explicitly addressed with specific thresholds. No numeric prior change is proposed -- evidence_added only -- and cited figures ($117.04B T-bills, $8.23B excess reserves, $183.44B USDT outstanding) are internally consistent across sources. Amplifier/trigger separation is coherent: steady-state stock exposure correctly distinguished from event-driven de-peg risk; no active-state contradiction found.",
      "role": "A"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "B",
  "A"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

10097310

Tether Q1 2026 BDO Italia attestation (Grade A, published 2026-05-01) shows direct T-bill holdings of $117.04B (per quote: US$117,035,732,050) and total direct + indirect Treasury-linked exposure of ~$141B against total assets of $191.77B and USDT outstanding liabilities of $183.44B -- full backing above 100%, with excess reserves at an all-time high of $8.23B. SIFMA (Grade A) places total Treasury securities outstanding at $30.7T as of April 2026; Tether's $117.04B direct T-bill holdings are a modest fraction of that market with no observable pricing pressure from its quarterly flow. Section 13 falsification criteria: direct T-bill holdings well below the 5% falsification threshold; no single-quarter swing exceeding $20B in USDT outstanding; attestation backing above 100%; no OCC or Treasury enforcement action against Tether as of 2026-05-16. GENIUS Act (OCC proposed rule 2026-02-25, FDIC NPRM 2026-04-07, final rules targeted July 2026) adds a forward-looking compliance risk for Tether market access but no current enforcement event has occurred -- this amplifier measures steady-state stock exposure, not event-driven de-peg risk (which belongs to the stablecoin trigger). Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim; evidence accumulation reinforces current_state of 0.30 with no material shift warranted.